“The System”- A 2021 Boys Class A State Tournament Field Forecast

Lincoln Pius X defender Sam Hastreiter (#30/white) confronts GICC's Gil Jengmer (Lt Blue) in front of the Crusader bucket, while the Thunderbolts Sam Hoiberg (#2/white) and GICC's Brayden Wenzl (#25/Lt.Blue) look on. Jengmer would end up scoring the basket, but Pius ended up winning the game.

I decided to follow “The Systems” predictions all the way through District Tournaments

to test the accuracy of the thing. There are two choices I disagree with, but the end result is what I expected.

I never forecast the outcomes of games in any high school sport, but one comment I will make is that ”The System” seems to be going pretty much chalk in Class A, so much so that the top 8 teams in the Wild Card standings were seeded exactly that way in the quarterfinals of the State Tournament bracket.

Not surprising to see that in Class A, where the Districts are set up with the idea of advancing the best teams to the State Tournament.

Let’s have a peek at what “The System” forecasts in Class A for the 2021 postseason:

2021 Class A Boys Basketball Districts with predicted outcomes:

District A-1

#4 Fremont 36.3810 (4-17) 61 vs 58 #5 Columbus 35.3500 (1-19)

#1 Bellevue West 45.5909 (20-2) 87 vs 47 #4 Fremont 36.3810 (5-17)

#3 North Platte 40.5000 (9-11) 47 vs 68 #2 Lincoln North Star 40.7000 (11-9)

#1 Bellevue West 45.5909 (21-2) 74 vs 54 #2 Lincoln North Star 40.7000 (12-9)

A-1 Champion - Bellevue West (22-2) 45.5833

District A-2

#4 Norfolk 36.9091 (7-15) 70 vs 67 #5 Lincoln High 35.0588 (1-17)

#1 Millard North 45.5217 (21-2) 91 vs 59 #4 Norfolk 36.9091 (8-15)

#3 Grand Island 40.3636 (12-10) 42 vs 45 #2 Gretna 40.8500 (11-9)

#1 Millard North 45.5217 (22-2) 70 vs 48 #2 Gretna 40.8500 (12-9)

A-2 Champion - Millard North (23-2) 45.5200

District A-3

#4 Omaha Bryan 37.1053 (3-16) 71 vs 66 #5 Omaha Northwest 34.8636 (1-21)

#1 Creighton Prep 44.9091 (20-2) 78 vs 49 #4 Omaha Bryan 37.1053 (4-16)

#3 Elkhorn South 40.2381 (10-11) 58 vs 61 #2 Kearney 41.0952 (13-8)

#1 Creighton Prep 44.9091 62 (21-2) vs 50 #2 Kearney 41.0952 (14-8)

A-3 Champion - Creighton Prep (22-2) 44.8333

District A-4

#1 Lincoln Pius X 44.7368 (17-2) 64 vs 48 #4 Omaha South 37.2105 (4-15)

#3 Lincoln East 39.9500 (8-12) 56 vs 59 #2 Lincoln Southeast 41.2000 (13-7)

#1 Lincoln Pius X 44.7368 (18-2) 65 vs 54 #2 Lincoln Southeast 41.2000 (14-7)

A-4 Champion - Lincoln Pius X (19-2) 44.6667

District A-5

#1 Omaha Central 42.9583 (19-5) 75 vs 50 #4 Omaha Burke 37.6364 (6-16)

#3 Lincoln Southwest 39.8889 (9-10) 56 vs 66 #2 Papillion-LVSouth 41.2727 (13-9)

#1 Omaha Central 42.9583 (20-5) 66 vs 59 #2 Papillion-LVSouth 41.2727 (14-9)

A-5 Champion - Omaha Central (21-5) 43.2692

District A-6

#1 Papillion-LaVista 42.2857 (15-6) 61 vs 44#4 Bellevue East 37.7727 (6-16)

#3 Millard South 39.7500 (9-11) 57 vs 55 #2 Lincoln Northeast 41.4500 (14-6)

#1 Papillion-LaVista 42.2857 (16-6) 56 vs 48 #3 Millard South 39.7500 (10-11)

A-6 Champion - Papillion LaVista (17-6) 42.4348

District A-7

#1 Omaha Westside 42.2273 (16-6) 70 vs 51 #4 Omaha Benson 37.9565 (9-14)

#3 Omaha North 39.1429 (9-12) 48 vs 61 #2 Millard West 42.1500 (15-5)

#1 Omaha Westside 42.2273 (17-6) 58 vs 56 #2 Millard West 42.1500 (16-5)

A-7 Champion - Omaha Westside (18-6) 42.1250

Wild Card - Millard West - 16-6 41.9546

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Class A Wild Card Standings prior to District Tournament play.

Bellevue West (20-2), 45.5909

Millard North (21-2), 45.5217

Creighton Prep (20-2), 44.9091

Lincoln Pius X (17-2), 44.7368

Omaha Central (19-5), 42.9583

Papillion-LaVista (15-6), 42.2857

Omaha Westside (16-6), 42.2273

Millard West (15-5), 42.1500

Lincoln Northeast (14-6), 41.4500

Papillion-LaVista South (13-9), 41.2727

Lincoln Southeast (13-7), 41.2000

Kearney (13-8), 41.0952

Gretna (11-9), 40.8500

Lincoln North Star (11-9), 40.7000

Grand Island (12-10), 40.3636

North Platte (9-11), 40.3500

Elkhorn South (10-11), 40.2381

Lincoln East (8-12), 39.9500

Lincoln Southwest (9-10), 39.9474

Millard South (9-11), 39.7500

Omaha North (9-12), 39.1429

Omaha Benson (9-14), 37.9565

Bellevue East (6-16), 37.7727

Omaha Burke (6-16), 37.6364

Omaha South (4-15), 37.2105

Omaha Bryan (3-16), 37.1053

Norfolk (7-15), 36.9091

Fremont (4-17), 36.3810

Columbus (1-19), 35.3500

Lincoln High (1-17), 34.9444

Omaha Northwest (1-21), 34.8636

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State Tournament Qualifiers with Wild Card Point averages:

1 Bellevue West (20-2), 45.5833 - (District A-1 Winner)

2 Millard North (21-2), 45.5200 - (District A-2 Winner)

3 Creighton Prep (20-2), 44.8333 - (District A-3 Winner)

4 Lincoln Pius X (17-2), 44.6667 - (District A-4 Winner)

5 Omaha Central (19-5), 43.2692 - (District A-5 Winner)

6 Papillion-LaVista (15-6), 42.4348 - (District A-6 Winner)

7 Omaha Westside (16-6), 42.1250 - (District A-7 Winner)

8 Millard West (15-5), 42.9546 - (District A-7 Runner-up/Wild Card entry

*Class A State Basketball Tournament - Quarterfinal Brackets*

#8 Millard West 16-6 (41.9546) 58 vs 70 Bellevue West 22-2 (45.5833) #1

#5 Omaha Central 21-5 (43.2692) 60 vs 62 Lincoln Pius X, 19-2, (44.6667) #4

#6 Papillion LaVista 17-6 (43.2692) 52 vs 59 Creighton Prep 22-2 (44.8333) #3

#7 Omaha Westside 18-6 (42.1250) 63 vs 72 Millard North 23-2 (45.5200) #2

Semifinals

#4 Lincoln Pius X (20-2) 63 vs 70 Bellevue West 23-2 #1

#6 Creighton Prep (23-2) 64 vs 69 Millard North (24-2) #2

Final

#2 Millard North (25-2) 74 vs 75 Bellevue West (24-2) #1

*2021 Class A State Champion - Bellevue West (25-2)*