One Down, Plenty to Go

The Iowa Caucus was held last week. On the Republican side it was smooth sailing for President Trump. On the Democratic side? Well, that was a boondoggle. As of this writing a clear winner has yet to be determined. Pete Buttigieg currently holds the lead with Bernie Sanders a very close second. Elizabeth Warren finished in a distant third and former Vice President Joe Biden was an afterthought in fourth. Where the boondoggle happened was how the votes were reported. The Iowa Democratic Committee decided to use an untested app, and naturally it was hacked within minutes. The back up phone line was swamped through the next day. Regular people saw that and immediately saw the flaw in reporting votes this way. Sanders supporters saw this and immediately saw a Democratic Party doing what they could to keep Sanders from the nomination. If you like non supported conspiracy theories, the Sanders supporters are the way to go. Back in reality, it's on to the next primary, in New Hampshire tomorrow night (2/11).

Tonight I will update the (unofficial) delegate votes and also update the polls for New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. How I will do it is next to my original prediction for Iowa will be the (unofficial) delegate count, and then for the other states, what the polls look like currently.

State Polling and (way to) early projections

Iowa Caucus (41 pledged delegates)

Sanders SHOULD be the front runner in Iowa (and all caucus), but he is struggling in the state he won in 2016. The latest polling (published on Nov 9) shows:

Elizabeth Warren at 20% - 8 predicted delegates

Mayor Pete at 19% - 8 predicted delegates

Bernie Sanders at 17% - 7 predicted delegates

Joe Biden at 15% - 7 predicted delegates

Actual Numbers

Pete Buttigieg 26.2% of the vote - 13 delegates

Bernie Sanders 26.1% - 12 delegates

Elizabeth Warren 18% - 8 delegates

Joe Biden 15.8% - 6 delegates

These are the only four that reached the 15% requirement, so there is still on delegate to claim (will mostly likely end up being claimed by Sanders. The others that received votes were Amy Klobuchar with 12.3%, Andrew Yang with 1%, and Tom Steyer with 0.3%.

New Hampshire primaries (24 delegates)

Tomorrow night (2/11) is the New Hampshire primary and this is the latest count on polls:

Bernie Sanders at 25.9%

Pete Buttigieg at 21.4%

Elizabeth Warren at 12.6% (below the threshold)

Joe Biden at 12% (below the threshold)

Amy Klobuchar at 10.3% (below the threshold)

As of tonight New Hampshire is a two person race between Sanders and Mayor Pete. No other candidate is polling at or near the 15% threshold. So I will only award to the top two

Sanders - 13 (25)

Buttigieg - 11 (24)

It should be noted that a month ago, Mayor Pete didn't even meet the threshold for delegates, now he is shouting distance of winning the primary.

Nevada caucuses (36 delegates)

The latest average shows:

Bernie Sanders at 23.6%

Joe Biden at 19.8%

Elizabeth Warren at 12.5%

If the caucus were held today it may look something like this (again I am only going with candidates that meet the threshold which are Sanders and Biden - this could be the third consecutive state where Warren doesn't receive a share):

Sanders - 14 (39)

Buttigieg - 0 (24)

Biden - 12 (12)

Another note: Biden's support has plummeted in Nevada. He has lost ten polls in the last month,

South Carolina primaries (54 delegates)

The largest amount of delegates given before Super Tuesday is the primary right before it in South Carolina. The latest polling average shows:

Joe Biden at 29.2%

Bernie Sanders at 16.9%

Elizabeth Warren has seen her support in the state plummet over the last month and this has largely benefited Sanders. Biden's support has begun to erode as well. If the polls hold this will be the 4th state where Warren doesn't receive a single delegate. She would need to have a giant showing on Super Tuesday to even remain in the race.

And the delegates awarded would look something like:

Biden - 36

Sanders - 18

Biden needs to maintain his large lead to have a good showing in the final primary before Super Tuesday.

So the field going into Super Tuesday could look like this:

Sanders - 57

Biden - 48

Buttigieg - 24

So what looked like a two person race between Sanders and Warren now looks like a three person race between Sanders, Biden, and Buttigieg. If Mayor Pete can somehow manage to win tomorrow night (or another candidate like Warren or Biden) this could cause a huge shift in the Democratic picture. If Sanders manages to pull out the win (even by a slim margin), the race is his to lose.

UPDATE:

Bernie Sanders was able to pull out a squeaker of a win defeating Pete Buttigieg 25.8% to 24.5%. The surprise of the night was Amy Klobuchar who came in third with 19.9%. These are the only three candidates that met the threshold of 15% and garnered the delegates. Elizabeth Warren came in a disappointing 4th with Biden in 5th. After the primary Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett dropped out of the race.

Sanders and Buttigieg ended up tied with 9 delegates a piece, while Klobuchar gained 6 delegates.

I also made a mistake in my Iowa update. Because of the caucus style, Elizabeth Warren did pick up a delegate despite not reaching the 15% threshold.

Updated Delegate Count:

Buttigieg - 22 delegates

Sanders - 21 delegates

Klobuchar - 6 delegates

Warren - 1 delegate