Week 9 College Football Review

Another week and playoff outlook has become that much more muddled. Penn State and TCU, both who looked like locks lost in stunning fashion. For Penn State they had gotten off to an early lead and it was very much looking like a route. Ohio State would not let their fate come out the same as with Oklahoma and fought back. Late in the game, Penn State drove the ball inside the 5 yard line leading 35-27 the Nittany Lions decided to extremely vanilla and run the ball up the middle three times in a row and settle for a field goal. That put them up 38-27. That would seem to be a safe lead but leaving a potential four more points on the field seemed like an odd choice. That would come back to bite Penn State as Ohio State completed the comeback and won 39-38.

For TCU they went to Ames, Iowa expecting an easy victory against the Iowa State Cyclones. As the Oklahoma Sooners already showed once this year, never underestimate the Cyclones. The Cyclones won 14-7, knocking the Frogs out of the playoffs. There was a stat that showed that before this season Iowa was 1-52 against teams in the top 5. This year they are 2-0. Up until this season Iowa State had never won a game in which they and their opponent were ranked. That changes as well. Suddenly the Iowa State head coach becomes a hot commodity on the coaching circuit.

Oh and Nebraska and Arkansas both came from behind an won their games. Nebraska came from behind to beat Purdue. Arkansas, at one point trailing 31-7 in the first half, outscored Mississippi State 31-6 to earn the victory.

There is a new addition to the review this week and that is projecting bowl games. It is a much more difficult process than it would appear to be and much more difficult than it actually should be. The playoff games and the "New Year 6" is nothing more than a guessing game as the 6 are decided by the final poll and don't specifically go by ranking. The playoff semifinal games are at the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl this year (with the National Championship at the Sugar Bowl as well). The bowl games don't get a specific #1vs#4 or #2vs#3 game instead the committee attempts to do it geographically. Because of that this week will also start the ranking of the playoff teams.

Playoff Teams

1. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0)

Alabama had the week off so did not have to worry about the upset bug that was prevalent this week. They are the best team in college football right now, but that gap does not seem as large as it has in past years. With the week off to prepare and heal it will be interesting to see if the Tide come out with a renewed sense of urgency. Last week: Bye

Up next: at home against LSU

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish(7-1)

Yes, Notre Dame has one loss, yes that loss was to Georgia (who is still unbeaten). As I have said, at the end of the season I do not believe that one conference will get two teams into the playoff. For that reason Georgia will not appear in the playoff unless Alabama loses along the way and Georgia is still undefeated, OR if Georgia beat Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Having said that, Notre Dame has been on absolute fire in recent weeks. For another team to beat them they will need to be on their A game while Notre Dame is on their C game. ​Last week: Defeated NC State 35-14

Up next: at home against Wake Forest

3. Wisconsin Badgers (7-0)

Wisconsin does not win pretty. They never have, this has become their trademark, but they do win. They are the lone undefeated team left in the Big Ten, after Penn State lost to Ohio State. They appear to only have 2 real tests for the rest of the season (outside of the Big Ten Championship game, should they reach it) in Iowa and Michigan. They have Indiana up next an while the Hoosiers are only 3-5 they can sneak up on teams that do not take them seriously. ​Last week: Defeated Illinois 24-10

Up next: at Indiana

4. Miami Hurricanes (7-0)

Miami, much like Wisconsin, does not win pretty but the win. They have had an unnormal amount of games in near monsoon downpours, but they have managed to keep winning. They are the sole team in the ACC that is still undefeated at this point which is a huge surprise. They were tested against North Carolina this week, the Tarheels actually had a chance to win the game late, and that will not change this week with Virginia Tech. ​Last week: Defeated North Carolina 24-19

Up next: at #9 Virginia Tech

Next Two Up

1. Georgia (8-0)

There are two main reasons why I do not have Georgia in the playoff field: They play in the SEC East. That is the biggest reason. Yes they have a victory over Notre Dame who is in the playoff, but the SEC East is an absolutely horrible division. Florida just fired their head coach, Tennessee may be doing the same in the near future. That leaves Kentucky, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Missouri. One word? Yuck. The second reason is because I already have an SEC team in the playoff and as I have said throughout the season, two teams from the same conference will not make it to the playoffs, unless there is at least two, two loss conference champions. Georgia is good this year, but I am not sure they can play up to Alabama's caliber. Hopefully, we get to find out, but only in the SEC Championship game. ​Last week: defeated Florida 42-7

Up next: at home against South Carolina

2. Oklahoma (7-1)

Oklahoma has looked rough in a few games this season. That stretch that some them seriously challenged against winless Baylor, the home loss to Iowa State, and the expected tough challenge against Texas Tech. However, that loss to Iowa State, while still bad, does not look as bad as it did earlier in the season after this past weekend's win against TCU. Oklahoma does have that victory over Ohio State in Columbus on their record and as long as they keep winning that will loom large. This week is Bedlam for the Sooners in Stillwater. SHOULD be a very high scoring game. ​Last week: defeated Texas Tech 49-27

Up next: at #6 Oklahoma State

Top 20

Iowa State made a large jump this week after beating the second playoff team they have faced this season. That is something that cannot be overlooked. Washington State and Marshall fell out of the Top 20 while SMU and Northern Illinois cracked the Top 20. Georgia absolutely destroyed Florida and it very much looks like Jim McElwain may not survive today as Florida's head coach.

3. Ohio State(7-1)(up 4): defeated #4 Penn State 39-38; up next: at Iowa

4. Penn State(7-1)(down from Playoff): lost to #3 Ohio State 39-38; up next: at #17 Michigan State

5. TCU(7-1)(down from Playoff): lost to #10 Iowa State; up next: at home against Texas

6. Oklahoma State(7-1)(-): defeated West Virginia 50-39; up next: at home against #2 Oklahoma

7. Clemson(7-1)(up 1): defeated Georgia Tech 24-10; up next: at #20 North Carolina State

8. Central Florida(7-0)(up 2): defeated Austin Peay 73-33; up next: at #19 SMU

9. Virginia Tech(7-1)(up 2): defeated Duke 24-3; up next: at home against #4 Playoff Miami

10. Iowa State(6-2)(up 10): defeated #5 TCU 14-7; up next: at West Virginia

11. Washington(7-1)(up 2): defeated UCLA 44-23; up next: at home against Oregon

12. Memphis(7-1)(up 3): defeated Tulane 56-26; up next: at Tulsa (Friday 11/3)

13. Toledo(7-1)(up 3): defeated Ball State 58-17; up next: at home against #18 Northern Illinois (Thursday 11/2)

14. Army(6-2)(up 4): off; up next: at Air Force

15. South Florida(7-1)(down 6): lost to Houston 28-24; up next: at UConn

16. Michigan State(6-2)(down 12): lost to Northwestern 39-31; up next: at home against #4 Penn State

17. Northern Illinois(6-2)(unranked): defeated Eastern Michigan 30-27(OT); up next: at #13 Toledo

18. SMU(6-2)(unranked): defeated Tulsa 38-34; up next: at home against #8 Central Florida

19. Stanford(6-2)(-): defeated Oregon State 15-14; up next: at Washington State

20. North Carolina State(6-2)(down 8): lost to #2 Playoff Notre Dame 35-14; up next: at home against #7 Clemson

Bowl and Playoff Projection

The way that I have decided to do this it to list the playoff games first and then the New Year's Day 6 next (even though they are not all on New Year's Day, that is what they are called). After that I will start with the first bowls to the end. It is difficult to project as many teams are not even bowl eligible and may not become bowl eligible. As projected teams fall out of bowl eligibility I will research more on how those slots will be filled. As it stands right now every team listed still has a mathematical chance of becoming bowl eligible. I will refine this list as the season goes on and I get a better understanding of how bowl picks actually happen. The Big Ten actually places their teams in bowls regardless of standings, so up until bowl invites are sent out it is nothing more than guess work.

The best way I can explain what happens when a conferences top teams make it to the Playoff or New Year's Six is that the rest of the league goes up a spot. I am still working this out, so it is very much a work in progress.

There are several teams that are already bowl eligible but only Army has accepted a bid. To denote teams that have accepted bids I will have their name in bold. Here we go.

Playoffs

Rose Bowl

January 1st, 5 PM

#2 Notre Dame vs #3 Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl

January 1st, 8:45 PM

#1 Alabama vs #4 Miami

New Year's Six

Cotton Bowl

December 29th, 8:30 PM

#2 Oklahoma vs #4 Penn State

Fiesta Bowl

December 30th, 4 PM

#5 TCU vs #11 Washington

Orange Bowl

December 30th, 8 PM

#7 Clemson vs #3 Ohio State

Peach Bowl

January 1st, 12:30 PM

#8 Central Florida vs #1 Georgia

Rest of the Bowls

December 13th

New Orleans Bowl

1 PM

Arkansas State vs UAB

Cure Bowl

2:30 PM

Temple vs Georgia State

Las Vegas Bowl

3:30 PM

Boise St vs Arizona St

New Mexico Bowl

4:30 PM

Florida International vs Fresno St

Camellia Bowl

8 PM

Northern Illinois vs Troy

December 19th

Boca Raton Bowl

7 PM

Tulane vs Florida Atlantic

December 20th

Frisco Bowl

8 PM

SMU vs Idaho

​December 21st

Gasparilla Bowl

8 PM

South Florida vs North Texas

​December 22nd

Bahamas Bowl

12:30 PM

Marshall vs Ohio

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

4 PM

Akron vs Wyoming

​December 23rd

Birmingham Bowl

Noon

Arkansas vs Memphis

Armed Forces Bowl

3:30 PM

Army ​vs Western Kentucky

Dollar General Bowl

7 PM

Toledo vs Appalachian St

​December 24th

Hawai'i Bowl

8:30 PM

Houston vs Colorado St

December 26th

​ Heart of Dallas Bowl

1:30 PM

Texas Tech vs Rutgers

Quick Lane Bowl

5:15 PM

Maryland vs Pittsburgh

Cactus Bowl

10 PM

Kansas St vs UCLA

​December 27th

​ Independence Bowl

1:30 PM

Mississippi vs Wake Forest

Pinstripe Bowl

5:15 PM

Northwestern vs Virginia

Foster Farms Bowl

8:30 PM

Iowa vs Arizona

Texas Bowl

9 PM

West Virginia vs Mississippi St

​December 28th

Military Bowl

1:30 PM

Navy vs Syracuse

Camping World Bowl

5:15 PM

Oklahoma St vs Clemson

Alamo Bowl

9 PM

Iowa St vs USC

Holiday Bowl

9 PM

Stanford vs Michigan St

​December 29th

Belk Bowl

1 PM

Texas A&M vs Georgia Tech

Sun Bowl

3 PM

Washington St vs Boston College

Music City Bowl

4:30 PM

Kentucky vs Virginia Tech

Arizona Bowl

5:30 PM

Louisiana-Monroe vs San Diego St

December 30th

Taxslayer Bowl

Noon

LSU vs Nebraska

Liberty Bowl

12:30 PM

Texas vs Florida

​January 1st

Outback Bowl

Noon

Michigan vs South Carolina

Citrus Bowl

1 PM

Auburn vs North Carolina St

Game of the Week

There were several choices this week, but the Bedlam Game is the choice. A heated rivalry that features two top ten teams is just way too much to pass up

#2 Oklahoma at #6 Oklahoma State