Week 21 General Election Projection

This projection comes in a iffy spot for projections. The final debate was this week and there have been no polls released that were done after the debate. So the projections stays the same. At this point the map has settled down considerably from late September-early October. Things could still change but we are now less than three weeks from election day and several states have already started early voting.

Nebraska started early voting on October 10 and Arkansas starts on Monday.

As far as the final debate is concerned, after dismal ratings in the second debate 74 million people tuned into the third debate making it the third most watched debate of all time trailing the first Clinton-Trump debate and the 1980 Reagan-Carter debate.

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http://www.270towin.com/maps/vPDQY

Toss-Up States

Pennsylvania

Eight new polls this week. Clinton's lead slipped to 4.6 in 75 polls 44.32-39.72. Clinton lead in every poll that was released this week. This is the main reason why I was hesitant to put Pennsylvania in as a toss-up state. Having said that, here leads in the eight polls were mostly at or below 5%.

Missouri

Five new polls this week. Trump's lead decreased to 4.5 in 42 polls 42.95-38.45. Trump lead in only 3 of the 5 polls this week by 12, 6, and 8. In the 2 polls that Clinton lead her leads were 11 and 4.

Florida

Nine new polls this week. Clinton's lead grew to 1.72 in 91 polls 43.94-42.22. Clinton lead in 6 of the 9 polls with almost every poll showing her with a 4 point lead. The main reason Clinton's lead crept up is because in the three polls that Trump lead in two were by two points the third was by one.

Arizona

Eight new polls this week. Trump's lead shrunk to 1.02 in 50 polls 41.16-40.14. Clinton lead in four of the eight new polls with a tie and Trump lead in three. It was a very mixed week in polls but heavily favored Clinton. For the time being it has definitely began trending towards Clinton. Food for thought, the last Democrat to win Arizona at the presidential level was Bill Clinton.

Ohio

Seven new polls this week. Clinton lead at 0.79 in 76 polls 42.47-40.68. Ohio is becoming my Achilles heal. While working on the polls the number of polls that had been released weren't matching what I had. After looking into the polls I realized that I had posted the same poll twice. In the seven new polls Trump lead in four with two ties and Clinton lead in one.

Nevada

Eight new polls this week. Clinton's lead has grown to 0.75 in 53 polls 41.3-40.55.Clinton lead in six of the eight polls this week. The momentum is decidedly in Clinton's favor at this time.

North Carolina

Eight polls this week. Clinton's lead grew to 0.53 in 77 polls 42.62-42.09. Clinton lead in five of the eight polls. There were two ties. Trump lead in one poll by two. North Carolina is slowly starting to slip away from Trump.

Iowa

Five new polls this week. Clinton's lead shrunk to 0.34 in 50 polls 40.04-39.7. Even though Clinton lead in three of the five polls this week all three by one point. Trump's two polls were 3 and 5. Iowa continues to be the wild card of the toss-ups.

Northeast

SAFE

Maryland - Clinton lead down to 52.58-28.87 (lead was 23.89 down to 23.71)
New York - Clinton lead up to 50.6-31.8 (lead was 18.52 up to 18.8)
Massachusetts - Clinton lead up to 51.7-28.79 (lead was 22.43 up to 22.91)
Vermont - Clinton lead up to 51.29-22.14 (lead was 27.76 up to 29.15)
DC - Clinton lead up to 60.27-18.53 (lead was 38.3 up to 41.74)
Maine D-1 - Clinton down to 47.5-31.38 (lead was 17 down to 16.12)
Rhode Island - Clinton lead up to 47.17-29.78 (lead was 15.86 up to 17.39)

LIKELY

Delaware - Clinton lead down to 42.92-31.24 (lead was 11.81 down to 11.68)
New Jersey - Clinton lead down to 46.03-34.57 (lead was 12.25 down to 11.46)
Connecticut - Clinton lead up to 46.68-34.11 (lead was 11.72 up to 12.57)
New Hampshire - Clinton lead up to 44.46-37.06 (lead was 6.94 up to 7.4)
LEAN

Maine D-2 - Trump lead down to 41-37.64 (lead was 4.23 down to 3.36)

Southeast

SAFE

Louisiana - Trump lead down to 50.81-32.94 (lead was 18.04 down to 17.87)
Alabama - Trump lead up to 55.19-30.44 (lead was 24.74 up to 24.75)
West Virginia - Trump lead up to 50.68-32.23 (lead was 17.53 up to 18.45)
Mississippi - Trump lead down to 51.59-32.59 (lead was 19.48 down to 19)
Tennessee - Trump lead up to 47.33-31.87 (lead was 15.08 up to 15.46)

LIKELY

Georgia - Trump lead down to 44.87-39.53 (lead was 5.5 down to 5.34)
Arkansas - Trump lead up to 47.46-35.14 (lead was 11.96 up to 12.32)
Kentucky - Trump lead up to 45.33-34.33 (lead was 10.96 up to 11.2)
Virginia - Clinton lead up to 43.98-36.53 (lead was 6.98 up to 7.45)
South Carolina - Trump lead up to 46.06-37.71 (lead was 8 up to 8.35)

MIDWEST

SAFE

Illinois - Clinton lead up to 47.32-32.17 (lead was 15.05 up to 15.15)

LIKELY

Indiana - Trump lead down to 44.5-36.06 (lead was 9.26 down to 8.44)
Michigan - Clinton lead up to 42.46-36.33 (lead was 5.95 up to 6.13)
Wisconsin - Clinton lead up to 44.04-36.22 (lead was 7.74 up to 7.82)
Minnesota - Clinton lead down to 41.97-33.97 (lead was 8.27 down to 8)

PLAINS

SAFE

Oklahoma - Trump lead down to 49.61-30.32 (lead was 19.66 down to 19.29)
North Dakota - Trump lead down to 47.94-26.22 (lead was 22.4 down to 21.72)
Nebraska D-1- Trump unchanged at 53-29 (up 24)
Nebraska D-3- Trump unchanged at 65-20 (up 45)

LIKELY

Texas - Trump lead up to 44.83-34.47 (lead was 10.3 up to 10.36)
South Dakota - Trump lead up to 42.45-32.7 (lead was 9 up to 9.75)
Nebraska D-2- Trump unchanged at 49-40 (up 9)
Kansas - Trump lead down to 42.7-37.7 (lead was 5.5 up to 5)

MOUNTAINS

SAFE

Wyoming - Trump lead up to 51.47-22.88 (lead was 28.43 up to 28.59)
Idaho - Trump lead down to 47.6-27.47 (lead was 20.92 down to 20.13)

LIKELY

Montana - Trump lead down to 44.44-34.32 (lead was 10.6 down to 10.12)
New Mexico - Clinton lead up to 41.63-33.8 (lead was 7.15 up to 7.83)
*Utah - Trump lead down to 37.6-27.79 (lead was 10.35 down to 9.81)
Colorado - Clinton lead up to 42.18-36.6 (lead was 4.75 up to 5.58)

PACIFIC

SAFE

California - Clinton lead up to 53.17-30.04 (lead was 22.72 up to 23.13)
Hawaii - Clinton lead up to 51.75-26.38 (lead was 24.69 up to 25.37)

LIKELY

Oregon - Clinton lead up to 45.17-34.06 (lead was 10.73 up to 11.11)
Washington - Clinton lead up to 45.87-32.16 (lead was 13.56 up to 13.71)
Alaska - Trump lead down to 39.88-32.54 (lead was 7.89 down to 7.34)

MAP WITH POLLS INCLUDING JOHNSON

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This frankly is a map that should scare Trump supporters. The map with Johnson included polls is hinting at a potential blow out. Kansas and Arizona are in Clinton's corner, Montana is only a lean Trump state. I have no idea if it will finish this way or even stay this way but it is something that needs watching.

*WHAT DO WE DO WITH A PROBLEM LIKE UTAH

Good news for Republicans in Utah, Clinton is no longer in second. Bad news for Trump supporters his lead is declining. How is this possible? Two words; Evan McMullin. He is a conservative independent running for President. He is from Utah and part of the #NeverTrump movement. Unfortunately, the brought him in so late that he was only able to get on 11 state ballots (Idaho, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Arkansas, Louisiana, Virginia, South Carolina, and Kentucky). He has write-in access in all but 12 of the remaining states. Write-in candidates are not usually successful because if one letter of the candidates name is missing or misspelled that vote is not counted.

He is within shooting distance in Utah. In the polls that he has been included in (10) the polls average looks like this:

Donald Trump - 31.9
Hillary Clinton - 24.7
Evan McMullin - 19.9
Gary Johnson - 9.2

However if you only look at polls taken in November quite a different picture emerges (6 polls):

Donald Trump - 30.67
Hillary Clinton - 25.17
Evan McMullin - 25.17
Gary Johnson - 7.5

In the first set of polls Donald Trump is leading Clinton by 7.2 points and McMullin by 12 points. In the October only polls Trump's lead shrinks to 5.5 and McMullin and Clinton are tied

Why is this?

In the last four polls Trump had leads of 37(T)-20(C)-20(M), 30(T)-29(M)- 28(C), 30(T), 29(M), 25(C). In the last poll that included McMullin he actually lead in the poll 31(M), 27(T), 24(C).

Utah, at this point, can actually be won be one of the three above mentioned candidate. If McMullin is able to score the upset he will be the first non two party candidate to win a delegate since 1968 when George Wallace was able to get the backing of the Dixiecrats and won 5 states in the south (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia). Add in a delegate vote from North Carolina and in that election he picked up 46 delegates. This actually thwarted to an extent the blow out win by Nixon. That election and the election of 1976 are also the last two times Texas voted for a Democratic candidate.

If Clinton or McMullin are able to pick off Utah this will also point to a run away win for Clinton. McMullin is not competitive in the other states that he is on the ballot. Utah is his home state and he is very popular there.