The End?

In 2008, after then Senator Barack Obama had won the election in what is considered a landslide, I had posted here that National Republican Party was essentially dead. I went on and said that the Republican Party would become a regional party, specifically in the southeastern portion of the United Stated and the Plains.

I felt the same after the 2012 election, though Obama won by less.

Fast forward to 2016.

We could be witnessing the actual end of the National Republican Party. With Trump falling further and further behind in the polls we could be witnessing the implosion at the national level. Pundits have been saying that depending on how much Clinton wins we could be looking at a tidal wave in the Congress (meaning both turning Senate and the House from Republican to Democrats). I personally do not think that the Democrats can win the House. They may be able to cut into the majority but I honestly do not think they will take the majority.

The national Republican party has struggled in how to support or even defend Donald Trump at times. Several candidates that are running in their own races have been supporters of Trump, then never Trumpers, then supporters of Trump again. When the party is having this much of an issue it is easy to see why the national wing of the Republican Party may be on it's last legs.

So what does happen if the national wing of the Republican Party does dissipate? Will we finally see the two party system fall apart? I do not think so. Though many of the founders did not like the idea of a two party system, let alone of parties in general we still ended up with a two party system in this country. It is widely considered that through our history we have had six general party systems. The main thing to take away from all of these systems and that there were always two parties. Here is a quick break down:

1st Political System (1792-1824): Federalist Party and the Democratic-Republican Party. The Democratic-Republican Party was started in essence against Alexander Hamilton's policies as president. The Federalist Party was seen as too elitist to compete and faded into history as a regional Northeastern party when they opposed the War of 1812. Until around 1828 the American political system saw a fairly small partisan government.

2nd Political System (1828-1854): Democratic Party and Whig Party. The era of good feelings came to an end as the Democratic-Republican Party split into the Democratic Party (led by Andrew Jackson) and the Whig Party. Yes the Democratic Party has been around this long. The big issue during this system was slavery. It saw the Republican Party born after a split with the Whigs in their opposition to slavery (when the party first formed they did not actually have a name for their new political party and simply called themselves No-Nothings which became the de facto name of the party until they rebranded themselves as the Republican Party. The rest of the Whig Party, not having much as far as leadership also faded into history as a regional party.

3rd Political System (1854-1890s): Democratic Party and Republican Party. This is the period that the Republican Party solidified as a national party and became known as the Grand Old Party (GOP). With the north winning the Civil War the Republicans set up "puppet" governments in the South and ruled through the end of Reconstruction. This was also a system that saw many third parties pop up around the country and either became part of either of the two major parties.

4th Political System (1896-1932): Democratic Party and Republican Party. This system was marked by the Progressive Era that dominated the Republican Party. The Republican Party saw gains in the northeastern United States and the old border states. What is interesting is that though labor was a major moving factor in politics the United States did not see a major Labor Party form.

5th Political System (1933-1950s): Democratic Party and Republican Party. This era saw the Democratic Party make major gains throughout the country spurred by President Roosevelt and his four elections and the Baby Boom following World War 2.

6th Political System (1960s-present): Mostly started during the 60s as the New Deal died saw a major shift in the political system that many Democrats became Dixiecrats in the South before become Republicans and the Silent Majority with Ronald Reagan.

So here we are at a potential break in the political system. In my opinion we are about to witness a 7th Political System and may already be in it as we speak. As you saw in the first two political systems major parties vanished because they were unable to stay with the times and became regional parties.

Who will fill the void left by the Republican Party at the national level? That remains to be seen, it could be the Libertarians or the Greens. A party will more than likely grow out of the Republican Party, possibly even the Tea Party.