Week 18 General Election Projection

This week's projection occurs primarily before most polls are out post-debate. Every scientific poll that came out after the debate showed Clinton winning and the first few national and state polls performed after the debate also show a boost to Clinton.

This time next week we will see exactly how the debate has affected the race.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/BBpoo

A few notes worth mentioning. Polls have finally been performed in the individual districts in Nebraska. The one that most will pay attention to is Omaha's which currently does give Trump the lead.

Colorado and Pennsylvania both fell to lean Clinton this week. As I have done I will wait a week to see if either state stays Lean or goes back to Likely. Kansas will also get that same look.

As we stand right now, neither candidate has enough Safe or Likely states to win the election, though Clinton is the closer of the two as she leads that category 243-149.

Toss-Up States

Missouri

Four new polls this wee saw a much needed leap for Trump. His lead increased to 4.86 in 28 polls 42.86-38. Trump lead in 3 of the 4 polls. In those three he lead by comfortable margins.

Georgia

Four new polls this week continues a good trend for Trump as he now ups his lead to 4.82 in 38 polls 44.14-39.32. Georgia continues the upward slide for Trump getting ever closer to becoming a Likely state and going off the board as a toss-up.

Florida

Seven new polls this week. Clinton's lead did shrink though to 1.63 in 68 polls 53.62-41.99. Clinton lead in 4 of the 7 polls, but Trumps leads were larger than Clinton's so her lead did shrink. Something to not the last poll before the debate showed a Trump lead of 41-34. In the two polls released after the debate, Clinton lead both polls 47-46 and 46-42.

Arizona

Four new polls in the state (seems like a trend) and Trump was able to stop his slide as his lead increased to 1.46 in 33 polls 40.85-39.39. Trump lead in three of the four polls including a poll that showed his lead at 52-42.

Ohio

Five new polls this week in Ohio. Clinton lead shrinks to 0.84 in 51 polls 40.9-40.06. Clinton lead in the first two polls this week but Trump lead the last three if minimally by 1, 1, and 3.

Nevada

Four new polls this week saw Trump's lead shrink to 0.43 in 32 polls 40.34-39.91.This was not a good week in Nevada for Trump. In the four polls he did not lead in one of them. Two were tied, the other were Clinton leads, including the first post-debate poll that had Clinton up 44-38.

North Carolina

Seven polls this week and Clinton was able to increase her lead, even it was 0.01. Her lead is now 0.3 in 55 polls 42.15-41.85. Clinton lead in 5 of the 7 polls, including the first poll after the debate 44-42.

Iowa

Four polls this week in Iowa saw Trump cut even further into Clinton's lead. She leads by 0.24 in 37 polls 39.51-39.27. Trump lead in two of the four polls. One was tied and Clinton lead the final poll. Trump's leads were 51-41 and 49-47 while Clinton's lead was 36-30.

Northeast

SAFE

Maryland - Clinton lead down to 52-27.95(lead was 25.47 down to 24.05)
New York - Clinton lead down to 50.47-31.74(lead was 18.84 down to 18.73)
Massachusetts - Clinton lead down to 50.71-28.76(lead was 28.1 down to 21.95)
Vermont - Clinton lead down to 47.33-20.25(lead was 28.44 down to 27.08)
DC - Clinton lead up to 52.5-23(lead was 19.5 up to 29.5)
Maine D-1 - Clinton unchanged at 47.5-30.5(lead remains at 17)

LIKELY

Delaware - Clinton lead down to 39.57-30 (lead was 10.79 down to 9.57)
New Jersey - Clinton lead up to 45-34.33(lead was 10.57 up to 10.67)
Connecticut - Clinton lead down to 44.94-33.83 (lead was 11.57 down to 11.11)
New Hampshire - Clinton lead down to 43.51-37.37(lead was 6.6 down to 6.14)
Maine D-2 - Trump lead unchanged at 41.83-35.67(lead remains at 6.16).
Rhode Island - Clinton lead up to 42.5-28.7(lead was 12.88 up to 13.8)

LEAN

Pennsylvania - Clinton lead down to 43.93-39.44(lead was 5.02 down to 4.49)

Southeast

SAFE

Louisiana - Trump lead down to 50.58-32.16 (lead was 19.47 down to 18.42)
Alabama - Trump lead down to 54.82-30.12 (lead was 26.07 down to 24.7)
West Virginia - Trump lead up to 47.95-32.74 (lead was 13.37 up to 15.41)
Mississippi - Trump lead down to 52.59-31.53 (lead was 21.78 down to 21.06)
Tennessee - Trump lead up to 46.88-29.88 (lead was 16.64 up to 17)

LIKELY

Arkansas - Trump lead up to 46.33-35.17(lead was 10 up to 11.16)
Kentucky - Trump lead up to 44.56-34.43(lead was 9.47 up to 10.13)
Virginia - Clinton lead down to 43.51-36.46 (lead was 7.37 down to 7.05)
South Carolina - Trump lead up to 45.17-37.5 (lead was 7.1 up to 7.67)

MIDWEST

SAFE

Illinois - Clinton lead down to 46.08-31.77 (lead was 14.35 down to 14.31)

LIKELY

Indiana - Trump lead down to 44.66-34.68 (lead was 10 down to 9.98)
Michigan - Clinton lead down to 41.75-36.19(lead was 5.68 down to 5.56)
Wisconsin - Clinton lead down to 43.39-35.53 (lead was 8.07 down to 7.86)
Minnesota - Clinton lead up to 41.55-33 (lead was 8.06 up to 8.55)

PLAINS

SAFE

Oklahoma - Trump lead up to 48.5-29.22 (lead was 18.47 up to 19.28)
North Dakota - Trump lead up to 46.4-25.2 (lead was 21.12 up to 21.2)
Nebraska D-1- Trump leads 53-29 (up 24)
Nebraska D-3- Trump leads 65-20 (up 45)

LIKELY

Texas - Trump lead up to 43.55-33.27 (lead was 9.58 up to 10.28)
South Dakota - Trump lead down to 38.9-30.2 (lead was 8.72 down to 8.7)
Nebraska D-2- Trump leads 49-40 (up 9)

LEAN

Kansas - Trump lead up to 41.68-37.36 (lead was 3.84 up to 4.52)

MOUNTAINS

SAFE

Wyoming - Trump lead up to 49.7-22.5 (lead was 26 up to 27.2)
Idaho - Trump lead up to 46.79-26.47 (lead was 19.5 up to 20.32)

LIKELY

Montana - Trump lead up to 42.29-33.21 (lead was 7.72 up to 9.08)
Colorado - Clinton lead down to 41-36.36 (lead was 5.5 down to 4.64)
New Mexico - Clinton lead up to 39.13-33.4 (lead was 5 up to 5.73)
Utah - Trump lead up to 37.08-28.16(lead was 7.25 up to 8.92)

PACIFIC

SAFE

California - Clinton lead up to 52.46-30.16 (lead was 22.21 up to 22.3)
Hawaii - Clinton lead up to 47.11-25.56 (lead was 20.43 up to 21.55)

LIKELY

Oregon - Clinton lead up to 45.33-33.48 (lead was 10.11 up to 11.85)
Washington - Clinton lead down to 44.45-31.4 (lead was 13.37 down to 13.05)
Alaska - Trump lead up to 39.75-29.75 (lead was 9.5 up to 10)

WITH JOHNSON IN THE POLLS

http://www.270towin.com/maps/LlmrA

IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY

Amazing how a debate can change the map. Two weeks ago (one week before the debate) this section had Clinton barely leading with a total of 272-266. Now a week since the debate Clinton's lead has ballooned back out to 346-192. The polls have measured this out as her national leads have gone from either tied or Clinton with a 1 or 2 point lead out to 5 and 6 points.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/DADJ3

Tonight is the Vice-Presidential debate. Both men are long time political figures and both shy away from personal attacks. I would not expect anything tonight to change the momentum. The next presidential debate is Sunday so that debate would wipe out anything accomplished tonight by either candidate.