Week 10 General Election Projection

In an effort to show where this race really is I have adjusted how I do the maps. The standard of percentages remains: anything under 5% is a lean, between 5 and 15% is likely and anything over 15% is safe.

I am depending more on 538than other websites simply because they do include all polls. (www.pollster.com Pollster) includes all polls but does not always factor them in. I have completely stopped using (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html Real Clear Politics) because quite honestly their methodology makes little sense.

According the national polls Trump is currently in a free fall. After his convention, as predicted, he not only caught Clinton he briefly took a lead ranging from 1-5%. Since Clinton's convention and the week that has followed Clinton has seen her lead come back and extend between 4-15%. Take this with a grain of salt. It's still early in August so this could be the extent of Clinton's lead.

Now, back to my predictions. I will continue posting my map but it will look vastly different. As far as discussion I will focus on what are considered to be the toss up states or tipping point states. These states are: Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, and Arizona. These states can and will change. For instance, Missouri, Iowa, and Colorado are considered toss up states but Clinton and Trump high enough leads right now that it is certain to go to them.

Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio could also potentially come off the toss up states.

When discussing these states I will post how many polls have been done in the state, what percentage each candidate sits at and whether that state is a lean, likely, or safe.

I will also list the states from least competitive to most competitive

Toss Up States

Virginia

There have been 12 polls taken in the state. Clinton currently leads by 6.17% 43.50-37.33%. The state is currently a Likely Clinton state.

Pennsylvania

There have been 19 polls taken in the state. Clinton currently leads by 5.74% 44.68-38.94%. The state is currently a Likely Clinton state.

Ohio

There have been 21 polls performed in the state with Clinton leading Trump by 5.39% 42.29-36.90%. The state is currently a Likely Clinton state.

Florida

There have been 27 polls taken in the state. Clinton currently leads by 3.3% 44.7-41.4%. The state is currently a Lean for Clinton.

Iowa

There have been 12 polls taken in the state. Clinton leads by 2.5% 41.67-39.17%. The state is currently a Lean for Clinton.

Georgia

There have been 11 polls in the state. Trump currently leads by 1.18% 43.54-42.36%. The state is currently a Lean for Trump.

Nevada

There have been 7 polls taken in the state. Trump currently leads by 1% 43.14-42.14%. The state is currently a Lean for Trump.

North Carolina

There have been 20 polls taken in the state. Clinton currently leads by 0.95% 43.20-42.25%. The state is currently a Lean for Clinton.

Arizona

There have been 9 polls taken in the state. Trump currently leads by 0.78% 42.11-41.33%. The state is currently a Lean for Trump.

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I will also look at each region and states polls. There are still several states that no polls have been conducted. Looking through the history these are states that should be considered safe for the candidate:

Trump

Nebraska
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wyoming

Clinton

DC
Hawaii
Rhode Island

Southeast

Arkansas: Trump leads 47-36% (Likely); Louisiana: Trump leads 52-36% (Safe); Mississippi: Trump leads 46-43% (Lean); Alabama: Trump leads 57-33% (Safe); South Carolina: Trump leads 45.5-41.5% (Lean); Tennessee: Trump leads 45.5-32.5% (Likely); Kentucky: Trump leads 41.5-32% (Likely); West Virginia: Trump leads 59-27% (Safe).

Northeast

Maryland: Clinton leads 62.33-27.7% (Safe); Delaware: Clinton leads 42-32% (Likely); New Jersey: Clinton leads 47.13-34.38% (Likely); New York: Clinton leads 54.14-33.64% (Safe); Connecticut: Clinton leads 44.5-38% (Likely); Massachusetts: Clinton leads 55.33-29.33 (Safe); Maine: Clinton leads 42.5-34.5% (Likely); New Hampshire: Clinton leads 44.5-39.08% (Likely); Vermont: Clinton leads 39-20.5$ (Safe).

Midwest

Indiana: Trump leads 46.25-36.75% (Likely); Illinois: Clinton leads 47.67-32% (Safe); Michigan: Clinton leads 43.14-34.79% (Likely); Wisconsin: Clinton leads 46.13-36.47 (Likely); Minnesota: Clinton leads 45.5-36.5% (Likely); Missouri: Trump leads 43.17-38.67% (Lean).

Plains

Texas: Trump leads 41-35.33% (Likely); Oklahoma: Trumps leads 50.5-28.5% (Safe); Kansas: Trump leads 43.25-35.5% (Likely).

Mountains

New Mexico: Clinton leads 41-33% (Likely); Colorado: Clinton leads 41.75-37.25% (Lean); Utah: Trump leads 35.71-31.71% (Lean); Montana: Trump leads 51-30% (Safe); Idaho: Trump leads 47.33-29% (Safe).

Pacific

California: Clinton leads 52.71-31.86 (Safe); Oregon: Clinton leads 43.5-37% (Likely); Washington: Clinton leads 48.5-36.5 (Likely); Alaska: Trump leads 49-44% (Likely)

Clinton currently leads Trump in delegates 341-197. Trump has gained 23 delegates by taking leads in Kansas, Arizona, and Nevada. While Kansas looks to be going towards a reliable Trump state, Arizona and Nevada are still very shaky.

CLARIFICATION

Just to clear up some information, my projection is based on the averages of polls. The actual outlook on each state may be different. Pollster depends on trending which looks different than the averages. 538 does three different calculations; polls plus - which includes other information from a historical perspective with the polls. polls only - which is self explanatory, and nowcast - which takes into account the last polling performed in the states and nationally.

My final prediction, which I will post on election day, may look exactly like my projections or may go on more of a trend line. I am hoping to match my 2012 prediction where I predicted correctly both candidates electoral votes. I do not think lightening will strike twice but I can hope.