Week 1 2016 General Election Projection

Now that is all but a certainty that the match-up this November will be between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump I am going to attempt to post an update every week. Initially it will be a little slow going as we still only have a handful of states doing polling at this time.

I am going to take a slightly different approach with the states that are considered toss up but have not released any polling. I will go ahead and throw a slight lean to either candidate based on how the state voted in 2012.

Above you can see the projection, below you will see a breakdown:

SAFE CLINTON:

Maine - 4 delegates

Vermont - 3 delegates

New York - 29 delegates

Massachusetts - 11 delegates

Rhode Island - 4 delegates

Connecticut - 7 delegates

New Jersey - 14 delegates

Maryland - 10 delegates

Washington D.C. - 3 delegates

Virginia - 13 delegates

North Carolina - 15 delegates

Michigan - 16 delegates

Wisconsin - 10 delegates

Illinois - 20 delegates

Washington - 12 delegates

Oregon - 7 delegates

California - 55 delegates

Hawaii - 4 delegates

TOTAL SAFE DELEGATES:

240 delegates

Clinton has lost two safe delegates from her list. Let's see what has caused this. Pennsylvania, based on polling has moved from safe to leaning Hillary, Minnesota has moved from safe to leaning Hillary. To bolster that Virginia has gone from likely Clinton to Safe Clinton and North Carolina has moved from lean Clinton to Sage Clinton.

SAFE TRUMP:

West Virginia - 5 delegates

Kentucky - 8 delegates

Tennessee - 11 delegates

South Carolina - 9 delegates

Alabama - 9 delegates

Mississippi - 6 delegates

Louisiana - 8 delegates

Arkansas - 6 delegates

Texas - 38 delegates

Oklahoma - 7 delegates

Kansas - 6 delegates

Nebraska - 5 delegates

South Dakota - 3 delegates

North Dakota - 3 delegates

Montana - 3 delegates

Wyoming - 3 delegates

Idaho - 4 delegates

Utah - 6 delegates

Alaska - 3 delegates

TOTAL SAFE DELEGATES:

191 delegates

Trump saw a huge dip in safe delegates dropping from 180 safe to 143. Georgia, Missouri, and Arizona all went from safe Trump to lean Trump.

TOSS UP STATES:

New Hampshire - 4 delegates

Pennsylvania - 20 delegates

Ohio - 18 delegates

Florida - 29 delegates

Georgia - 16 delegates

Indiana - 11 delegates

Minnesota - 10 delegates

Iowa - 6 delegates

Missouri - 10 delegates

Colorado - 9 delegates

New Mexico - 5 delegates

Arizona - 11 delegates

Nevada - 6 delegates

155 delegates up for grabs.

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Trump has gained a point on Clinton but the state still leans Clinton.

PENNSYLVANIA:

Though Clinton still has a decent lead in the state the last few polls have shown a tightening of the race. Clinton currently leads Trump 45-40% and therefor goes from safe to likely.

OHIO

Trump has really cut into Hillary's lead now only trailing 43-42%. However, Clinton still has the leads so no change in rating.

FLORIDA:

Trump has gained a point on Clinton now trailing 45-42%. No change in rating.

GEORGIA:

The primary reason that Georgia has gone from Safe Trump to Leaning Trump is because more polls have come in and even though Trump still has the lead it is small currently leading Clinton 44-42%

INDIANA:

Even though there has not been any polling in Indiana the state went solidly to Romney in 2012, so at this point I will move it from neither candidate to Likely Trump.

MINNESOTA:

There have been three polls in the state, two showed Clinton with a 5 point lead, one showed a 3 point lead for Trump. For this reason the state has moved from Safe Clinton to Lean Clinton.

IOWA:

Clinton not only is leading in the state her lead is actually growing at this point up to 47-40%. The state goes from a Lean Clinton to a Likely Clinton.

MISSOURI:

The main reason that Missouri has gone from Safe Trump to Lean Trump is that Trump's lead has deteriorated from a 9 point lead to a Clinton lead of 2. This only involving three polls.

COLORADAO, NEW MEXICO, AND NEVADA:

All three states voted for Obama in 2012, so until some polling shows up all three will lean Clinton.

ARIZONA:

The polls have been all over the place to this point, some giving Trump a lead, some giving Clinton. Arizona moves from safe Trump to lean Trump.

107 of the Toss up delegates go to Clinton, 48 go to Trump.

As of this writing Clinton currently leads Trump 347-191 delegates.