Oregon and Kentucky Primaries

There is not a lot to say about the two primaries today as there has been virtually no polling in either state. Experts believe that Sanders should win Oregon in a route, similar to Washington, Alaska, and Hawaii. They also give him the edge in Kentucky due to the demographics.

We will just have to wait until tonight to see what happens. Stay tuned, same bat channel, same bat time.

UPDATE 7:45 PM:

Going into tonight it was felt that Kentucky would be a toss up between Clinton and Sanders and it has not disappointed. Sanders had an edge due to the demographics of the state. Clinton had an advantage due to the primary being a closed primary.

The lead has changed several times through the night with the largest lead being Clinton by about 5,000 votes with 78% of the vote counted. With about 91% of the vote counted that lead has shrunk to just over 1,000.

Having said that, even if Clinton eventually loses tonight this will still be seen as a win. Sanders needs to win more than 65% of the remaining delegates to win the nominations and neither candidate will reach 50%. However, because Clinton needs less than 35% of the remaining delegates and she will win more than 45% just in Kentucky, so she will maintain her pace.

UPDATE 9:15 PM:

Though Kentucky has yet to be called with 99.7% of the vote in Clinton leads Sanders by a vote of 212,318-210,505. I don't really see roughly 2,000 more votes for Sanders in that remaining 0.3% but you never know.

The Oregon results should start coming within the hour.

UPDATE 10:45 PM:

Bernie Sanders has been declared the winner of Oregon but it is going to be a lot closer than it was expected. To be considered a resounding victory Bernie would have had to have won Oregon with between 65-67% of the vote. He may not even get to 55%. At this point, I have no issue of saying that the Democratic Primary is over.

DELGATE UPDATE:

KENTUCKY:

Hillary Clinton wins the state by a hair 46.8%(212,550)-46.3%(210,626). For those keeping count that is a margin of 1,924. She picks up 28 of the 55 delegates. Sanders picks up 27.

OREGON:

Bernie Sanders win the state going away but not nearly by the measure he needed to 56-44%. I had stated last night it would be difficult for him to hit 55% but he was able to just surpass that. He gets 35 of the 61 delegates, while Clinton gets 28.

Both states together, Sanders came out with a surplus of six delegates.

REMAINING DELEGATES:

781 Delegates

Hillary Clinton - 1771 delegates

Clinton needs to win 33% of the remaining delegates to clinch before the nomination. As stated last night she is all but assured of getting the number of delegates needed to be a one ballot winner. If Sanders can somehow string together wins in the remaining states and keep her below that threshold he has a chance.

Bernie Sanders - 1501 delegates

Sanders needs to win 67% of the remaining delegates to clinch before the nomination. His only hope at this point is to win enough to keep Hillary from clinching the nomination and forcing a fight at the convention.

There are only three large delegate grabs left in the race; California (475 delegates), New Jersey (126 delegates), and surprisingly Puerto Rico (60 delegates).

Two of the three (Puerto Rico holds their primary on the 5th) come on the June Super Tuesday on June 7th that also has races in Montana, New Mexico, South Dakota, and North Dakota. As it looks now with polling and trends Clinton looks to take the three big haul states as well as New Mexico and Sanders should take Montana and the Dakotas.

There are only two more races before June Super Tuesday (Virgin Islands on June 4 and Puerto Rico). So there is a three week break before any of that.

The only other race after June 7 is Washington D.C. on June 14 which has only 20 delegates available yet has 28 Super Delegates.