A Way to Early Look at the 2016 General Election

Posted Thursday, May 5, 2016, at 2:46 PM
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  • Be sure and not color over the lines, Michael! And don't forget to put your colors down and go out and play at recess!! The sun will do you good! When are you actually going to get a life? Or, will you ever? You do know that obsessions are not healthy, do you not?

    -- Posted by allstar69 on Thu, May 5, 2016, at 11:29 PM
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    I prefer to call it a hobby. Further more, no one is forcing you to read any of this. I would say your little obsessions is way worse than my supposed one is. I mean, seriously, I had not written on this website for two years and yet here you were just waiting to throw the same tired, elementary insults at me.

    Get to a psychiatrist, or something. You clearly are not healthy. A five year old would laugh at your insults.

    -- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Fri, May 6, 2016, at 10:29 AM
  • Missed you those two years! (sarcasm alert)

    -- Posted by allstar69 on Fri, May 6, 2016, at 12:51 PM
  • Typical liberal! Demands tolerance from everyone but has no tolerance for anyone disagreeing with them. You clearly have more knowledge about the thoughts of five-year-olds than I do.........

    -- Posted by allstar69 on Fri, May 6, 2016, at 1:42 PM
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    Where exactly are you disagreeing with me allstar? You start and end with insults about my personal health. Where exactly did you disagree with me that I am not tolerating?

    You sound more like a moronic troll. Someone who thinks they are highly intelligent but actually says nothing at all.

    Of course I have more knowledge than you do. That's a given.

    -- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Fri, May 6, 2016, at 2:12 PM
  • I do not doubt your analysis at this time. The pollsters have been off on the low side in many races involving Trump--apparently their normal methods do not predict his support correctly.

    If Hillary wins, I think that will be ironic. She will get the blame for the recession that has probably already begun.

    A historic win as first woman president.

    I do believe the surge of voters against the establishment elite in both parties is not well understood, and is severely underestimated. Trump has tapped into the understandable resentment of voters against that elite.

    So we have a choice between an egomaniac and a criminal. I cannot find anyone who really likes either one of them, as your father pointed out in his column.

    JG

    -- Posted by JohnGalt1968 on Sat, May 7, 2016, at 9:45 PM
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    I do agree with you on one point. This election if it goes through with the current leaders of each party's nominating process will feature the two people with the highest unfavorable ratings in the race. That is telling on a couple of points. It is proof to my eyes that we need to abolish the two party system and second people are just flat out tired and angry at politics as usual.

    The choice really boils down to a man who insults everyone he can think of or a woman who chances her stances as often as the win changes direction.

    -- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Tue, May 10, 2016, at 11:49 AM
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    The polling through the primary process has been ugly at best. Most polls have under represented Bernie Sanders throughout the process. There have been times when they have under represented Trump but for the most part have been relatively close. In other words, when Trump has won no one has been surprised. When Bernie has won or came within a few points of Hillary everyone was surprised.

    I do not expect to see the same issues moving into the general elections. Polling during the primaries is not very good and in some states is non existent. Nebraska votes today for the Republicans and there hasn't been a poll there for two years.

    As the national election takes more focus the major pollsters will begin doing a lot more polls in most states (mostly the toss up states) that will give us a pretty clear picture of the race.

    The last national polls before the 2012 election either had Romney winning or within the margin of error but the state polling showed a very different picture.

    My recommendation is to not even pay attention to the national polls at all. Go to www.pollster.com or www.fivethirtyeight.com for your polls. Nate Silver, who runs 538, has a very strong track record of predicting outcomes.

    -- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Tue, May 10, 2016, at 12:00 PM
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