New York Primary

Tomorrow marks among the biggest primary gains for both parties in a single contest. On the Republican side there are 95 delegates up for grabs, while on the Democratic side 247 delegates are up for grabs.

I have been keeping track of the delegates all season long and after looking at several different places that also keep track of the delegate count I have decided to match my delegate count as close to www.fivethirtyeight.com as possible. A couple of side notes to the counts; my delegate count on the Republican side includes those delegates that are unpledged until the convention while 538 doesn't. They do not actually make that big of a difference as my count has Ted Cruz behind by 200 delegates, while 538 has Cruz behind 215. On the Democratic side my count is identical but what 538 does is they do not count the super delegates at all while most of the major news outlets (NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, and Fox News) do which gives a completely different picture of the Democratic side.

With that being said, going into tomorrow the delegate picture looks like this:

REPUBLICAN:

Donald Trump - 759 delegates

Ted Cruz - 559 delegates

John Kasich - 143 delegates

Remaining delegates:

Percent needed to win:

I will not be including Kasich in this tabulation as he needs more delegates to win before the convention that he can get.

769 delegates left to win

1,237 delegates to win nomination

Trump needs to win 62% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination before convention.

Cruz needs to win 88% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination before convention.

At this point Cruz has switched out of trying to win the nomination before the convention and into keeping Trump from winning the nomination and forcing a brokered convention.

If New York were a winner take all or even winner take most state, Trump would be seen as more than likely to get the nomination. However it is not so while he may end up with a good enough amount of delegates, he won't win enough to make it apparent that he is going to win the nomination before the convention.

DEMOCRATIC:

Hillary Clinton - 1305

Bernie Sanders - 1099

An interesting not here if you look at my delegate count, Sanders is only 6 delegates further behind Clinton than Cruz to Trump. If you look at 538's numbers Sanders is actually closer to Clinton than Cruz is to Trump. Yet this is not being mentioned ANYWHERE in the media.

Remaining delegates:

Percent needed to win:

1,647 delegates left

2,026 delegates needed to win nomination

Clinton needs to win 43% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination.

Sanders needs to win 56% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination.

NEW YORK:

The polls at this point are heavily favored towards Trump and Clinton. Trump leads Kasich and Cruz 54-22-19%. If he wins at this margin it is possible that New York could become a winner take most and that would help Trump. Looking back to other polls in other states and results I would not expect Trump to hit 50% mark at all. I do think he will win the state by more than 20% but I'm not entirely sure who would come in second. It should be Cruz but the number of shots that Cruz has taken at New Yorkers in this campaign I would be surprised if he finished second (well not really surprised as this entire nomination has made no sense to this point).

On the Democratic side Hillary leads Bernie 55-41%. Do not quote that number as almost every state that has had polls Bernie has vastly outperformed those polls. However, New York is very restrictive in who can actually vote in a Democratic primary and that vastly benefits Hillary. So, while I would not be shocked if she does win by that margin or more it should be a much tougher contest than expected. This is a strange battleground because of Hillary continually saying that New York is her home state. However, she only moved to New York after her husband left the White House and was able to win two terms to the senate. She was actually born and raised in Illinois and spent the majority of her adult life in Arkansas. Bernie was born and raised in Brooklyn though he has been in Vermont for the vast majority of his adult life.

Tomorrow should be an interesting day. So buckle up.

UPDATE 6:15 PM:

A few things to watch tonight as we are edging closer to the closing of the polls from the team over at www.fivethirtyeight.com:

There are 247 delegates available in New York for the Democrats Clinton's target to stay on goal for the nomination is 122. Bernie's target is 125.

Up to this point in the race 538 has Hillary at 107% of her projected delegate gain to this point and Bernie is at 93%.

On the Republican side there are 95 delegates available. Trump's target tonight is for 58. Cruz's target is 6 delegates. Kasich's target is 45 which would put him relatively close percentage wise to Trump.

For the record Kasich has not won a delegate in over a month.

Up to this point Trump is at 91% of his projected delegate take, Cruz is at 57%, and Kasich is at 20%

Another thing the site does it put a percentage that each candidate will win:

On the Democratic side based on the polling they give Hillary Clinton a 98% chance of winning the state (for the record, her number was about the same for Michigan, as was Bernie's for Ohio).

For the Republicans Trump essentially has 100% chance of winning the state.

DELEGATE UPDATE:

A good explainer from MSNBC as far as the Republicans are concerned. If a candidate crosses the 50% statewide vote they automatically get 14 delegates. There are 27 congressional districts that have 3 delegates each. If a candidate wins a district with more than 50% of the vote they get all three delegates. If Trump does what the polling is showing he could turn New York into a Winner Takes Most or even potentially Winner Takes All.

UPDATE 8:00 PM:

Donald Trump is the projected winner of the New York primary as soon as the polls closed. The Democratic primary is too close too call but Hillary has the lead.

UPDATE 8:40 PM:

Hillary Clinton is the projected winner of the New York primary. If the numbers hold, Trump could end up taking all the delegates.

DELEGATE UPDATE:

REPUBLICAN:

Donald Trump - 61% of vote - 90 delegates

John Kasich - 25% of vote - 5 delegates

Ted Cruz - 15% of vote - 0 delegates

Trump fell just short of winning all the delegates in the state. Kasich did well enough in a couple of districts to gain five delegates. No matter how you look at this race this was nothing short of disastrous for Ted Cruz and the anti-Trump wing of the Republican Party. It was said before the primary that Trump winning 80 delegates would be a great night and he exceeded that. Yes, this is Trump's home state but no one saw this happening.

OVERALL:

DELEGATES NEEDED TO WIN:

Donald Trump - 849 delegates

Ted Cruz - 559 delegates

John Kasich - 148 delegates

Other - 182 delegates

Trump needs to win 58% of the remaining delegates to reach the nomination of 1,237 before the convention.

Cruz needs to win 100% of the remaining delegates to reach the nomination of 1,237 before the convention.

It has officially become impossible for any candidate but Trump to win the nomination before the convention. Expect the Trump team to start campaigning heavily on that in the next few days and weeks. This race should be over but Kasich and Cruz seem to be willing to do anything they can to get to a brokered convention, and with April's Super Tuesday next week it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Of note, next Tuesday will be the last week (outside of California) that will be favorable to Trump.

DEMOCRATIC:

Hillary Clinton - 58% of the vote - 139 delegates

Bernie Sanders - 42% of the vote - 108 delegates

OVERALL:

NEED TO WIN:

Clinton - 1,444 delegates

Sanders - 1,207 delegates

Clinton needs to win 42% of the remaining delegates to reach 2,026 before the convention.

Sanders needs to win 59% of the remaining delegates to reach 2,026 before the convention.

While Clinton did win big last night in New York (and for only the second time matched or beat what the polling had been showing) it was not a big enough win to knock Sanders out of the race. He has promised to stay in the race to the convention and last night's results did not change that.