Super Tuesday Part Deux Results

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump won big on Tuesday but the only thing we actually found out was that Marco Rubio after being beaten handily in his home state dropped out of the race.

I am going to try something a little different with this results with hopes that it will be a little clearer and neater. I will go state by state with results and delegates won (to this point, with a couple of states ending closely we do not have a full count. First you will see the candidate along with their percentage, below will be their delegate count (if any), followed by their week delegate count in (). I will explain more below.

FLORIDA:

Republicans - 99 delegates

Trump - 46%

99 delegates (108 delegates - counting Northern Marianas)

Rubio - 27%

Cruz - 17%

Kasich - 7%

Others - 3%

Democrats - 214 delegates

Clinton - 64%

133 delegates

Sanders - 33%

65 delegates

Others - 3%

6 unassigned delegates

NORTH CAROLINA:

Republicans - 72 delegates

Trump - 40%

29 delegates (137 delegates)

Cruz - 37%

27 delegates (27)

Kasich - 13%

9 delegates (9)

Rubio - 8%

6 delegates (6)

Others - 2%

I unassigned delegate

Democrats - 107 delegates

Clinton - 55%

59 delegates (192 delegates)

Sanders - 41%

45 delegates (110)

Others - 4%

3 delegates unassigned

OHIO:

Republicans - 66 delegates

Kasich - 47%

66 delegates (75 delegates)

Trump - 36%

(137 delegates)

Cruz - 13%

(27)

Rubio - 3%

(6)

Others - 1%

1 delegate unassigned

Democrats - 143 delegates

Clinton - 57%

79 delegates (271 delegates)

Sanders - 41%

62 delegates (172)

Others - 2%

2 delegates unassigned

ILLINOIS:

Republicans - 69 delegates

Trump - 39%

51 delegates (188 delegates)

Cruz - 30%

9 delegates (36)

Kasich - 20%

5 delegates (80)

Rubio - 9%

(6)

Others - 2%

4 delegates unassigned

Democrats - 156 delegates

Clinton - 51%

68 delegates (339)

Sanders - 49%

67 delegates (239)

Others - 0%

21 delegates unassigned

MISSOURI:

Republicans - 52 delegates

Trump - 41%

25 delegates (213 delegates)

Cruz - 41%

5 delegates (41)

Kasich - 10%

(80)

Rubio - 6%

(6)

Others - 2%

27 delegates unassigned

Trump is ahead of Cruz by 1,726 votes so most of the remaining delegates will got to Cruz (more than likely a 26-26 tie. Missouri is a winner take all state IF the winning candidate received 50% +1 of the votes. That is not the case so it will be proportional. In Missouri if the candidate in second place is behind by less than .5% they are able to ask for, and get, a recount. With Cruz statistically .2% behind it is expected he will ask for a recount.

Democrats - 71 delegates

Clinton - 50%

32 delegates (373 delegates

Sanders - 50%

32 delegates (271)

Others - 0%

7 delegates unassigned

Clinton is ahead by 1,531 over Sanders. I believe that whoever wins the state will end up with one more delegate with the number of delegates being odd. Sanders is expected to ask for a recount as this would be a small win for him.

Overall Week Delegate Count:

Republicans

Trump - 213 delegates

Kasich - 80 delegates

Cruz - 41 delegates

Rubio - 6 delegates

Democrats

Clinton - 373 delegates

Sanders - 271 delegates

Overall Delegate Count:

Republicans

Trump - 673 delegates

Cruz - 411 delegates

Others - 184 delegates

Kasich - 143 delegates

Needed to win - 1,237

Democrats

Clinton - 1,139

Sanders - 825

Needed to win - 2,383

Total left - 2,308

I will pick back up later today to go through all the data with you and my analysis of what Tuesday really means for the race.

ANALYSIS:

As promised late last night/early this morning (which ever is to your liking) I am here to offer my analysis of Super Tuesday Part Deux.

In short, nothing has been decided, but Trump and Clinton has lengthened their leads.

Despite what the media has been shouting Clinton's sweep on Tuesday was not the death knell of the Sanders campaign. Her only significant win of the day was Florida where, like the rest of the South, she won by over 30%. She had 14 point wins in North Carolina and Ohio, but less than 5 point wins in Illinois and Missouri.

Ohio is significant because once again the polling was way off. One reason that this may be the case is because Independents in the state broke heavily for Kasich when they had been breaking for Sanders. It is not all that surprising considering Ohio is Kasich's home state and he is still very popular. Plus many of the votes were protest votes against Trump. That is very troubling as polls have not only been wrong in several states so far this primary season they have been horribly wrong. At the end of the day, Clinton was only able to extend her lead by 100 delegates and the rest of the states are mostly western states which favor Bernie.

The thing to watch from here on out is who will be favored with the exit of Rubio. Rubio voters have no like for Trump but it is unclear whether they prefer Cruz or Kasich. Kasich, at this point, simply does not have a path to victory. Even if he wins the rest of the delegates he would not have enough delegates to secure the nomination. Trump at this point still has to win 54% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. Cruz, who is in second place needs to win 78%.

In short, if the Republican establishment truly want to be beat Trump through the normal nominating process, they need Kasich to drop out. There are still several states left that are winner take all, but at this point it is hard to imagine any Republican having enough delegates to clinch before the convention.

Signs still point to a brokered convention, and then who knows what will happen.

Next week is pretty much all about the Democrats as the Republicans only have contests in Arizona and Utah while the Democrats have contests in Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington state.