The Unknown Primaries

There will be six total primaries and caucuses over the next two days and there is very little polling data for any of them.

On tap for Saturday are the Kansas Caucuses for both parties, the Kentucky caucus for the Republicans, the Louisiana primaries for both parties, the Maine caucus for the Republicans, and the Nebraska caucus for the Democrats.

On Sunday we will see the Maine Caucus for the Democrats and the Puerto Rico primaries for the Republicans.

The Democrats abroad primaries are still ongoing for the Democrats and scheduled to finish up on the 8th but at the last check Sanders was pulling away. There are a total of 17 delegates up for grabs and it looks like Sanders will get the majority of those.

But on to the next couple of days with the polling available with my personal predictions.

For the Democrats they have the Kansas, Nebraska, and Main Caucuses and the Louisiana primaries. The Clinton camp has already conceded that they are more than likely to loose the Nebraska Maine and Kansas Caucuses.

Kansas - The only poll to be done in the state this year was released on February 27 by Fort Hays State and showed Clinton with a lead of 33-23%. However, only there were only 123 respondents and the margin of error was a mind bending +/-5%. 44% were undecided.

Louisiana - Clinton has a 61-14% lead with 25% undecided.

Nebraska and Maine - No polling.

I do believe that Sanders will win all three caucuses and Clinton will run away with Louisiana. The three caucuses have 97 delegates up for grabs and Louisiana has 58. Sanders has a good chance to grab a majority of the delegates available over the weekend.

On the Republican side the Republicans have the Kansas, Kentucky and Maine caucuses and the Louisiana primary on Saturday followed up by the Puerto Rico primary on Sunday.

Kansas - The same group, Fort Hays State, released the only poll this year for the Republicans with a slightly higher respondent group. Trump leads Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, and Carson 26-14-13-3-3% with 39% undecided. I am keeping Carson in the polling for this weekend only because he dropped out of the race today.

Kentucky - Western Kentucky is the only poll released this year with Trump leading Rubio, Cruz, Carson, and Kasich 35-22-15-7-6% with 15% undecided.

Louisiana - The state was very active this year with a gigantic two polls released this year in the last month. The poll has Trump leading Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, and Carson 44-24-15-7.

Maine and Puerto Rico - No polls released.

With the number of undecideds in Kansas there are and with Trump's lead over Cruz only being 12% this state is a legitimate state for Cruz to take. He is already on the board with Texas and Oklahoma wins so this would not be a surprise if Cruz walks away with the win, with Trump in second, and Rubio in third.

Trump will walk away with both Kentucky and Louisiana, and Cruz will come in second. This race is really down to Trump and Cruz at this point.

This is just a shot in the dark for Maine and Puerto Rico, but I do believe that Trump will win Maine and Cruz will win Puerto Rico.

We shall see what happens. I will keep everyone updated.

UPDATE 3:35 PM:

Both the Republican and Democratic Caucuses in Kansas have closed. The only information in is that both races are too close to call but with about 16% reporting on the Republican side (they closed earlier Cruz has a significant lead over Trump 49-26%. Cruz at one point was up 50-25% so expect this to get closer as the counting continues. None of the votes from the 3rd Congressional Caucus which cover the Kansas side of Kansas City. So I will keep watching so you don't have to.

UPDATE 4:43 PM:

Now that the third congressional caucus is reporting. Ted Cruz has been declared the winner in Kansas and he is going to win by a very comfortable margin. With 61% reporting Cruz is up on Trump 51-24%. Rubio is a very distant third at 15% and Kasich comes in at 9%.

There are still not votes on the Democratic side of Kansas. The Republican Maine caucus is still ongoing but with 5% in Cruz is the surprise current leader over Trump 48-35% (or about 200 votes. Rubio is only leading Kasich by 16 votes. If Cruz can hold on the Maine that would have to be a huge surprise because the northeast is considered to be Trump land.

UPDATE 6:25 PM:

Cruz is still leading in Maine and Trump has the lead in Kentucky at this time. What is perplexing is that the Democratic Kansas Caucus closed three hours ago and not a single vote has been reported.

UPDATE 7:45 PM:

Kansas has announced that Bernie Sanders has won their Democratic Caucus, though at this time there are still no numbers out. It looks as though Cruz has won Maine, though the Chair of the Maine GOP is taking his sweet time announcing it. Ted Cruz has won Maine, which I have stated earlier is absolutely huge considering that Maine is in New England which has been considered a lock for Trump. Marco Rubio came in forth. At this point he is beyond done.

Trump is still in the lead in Kentucky but that has not been called as of yet. Still left are the Nebraska caucus for Democrats and Louisiana for both parties.

Still coming tomorrow are Maine for Democrats and Puerto Rico for Republicans.

UPDATE 8:05 PM:

Nebraska has been called for Bernie Sanders. I have been told that Bernie won Red Willow by a more than 2 to 1 margin.

UPDATE 8:20 PM:

Louisiana, not surprisingly, has been called for Hillary Clinton. Kentucky and Louisiana on the Republican side have still not been called.

UPDATE 8:45 PM

Louisiana has been called for Donald Trump. Kentucky as yet to be called and the main reason for that is because some of the larger populated areas in the state have not reported their results yet.

UPDATE 11:00 PM

After Louisiana was called the race got considerably closer. Even though the early voting went heavily for Trump the voting day of went strongly for Cruz and he actually narrowed the race. Kentucky initially went to Trump. Cruz won two and Trump won two. The Republican primary may be facing a sea change, we will know more in the weeks to come.

Day 2 of the weekend primary tomorrow. See you all then.

Democratic Party: Bernie Sanders picked up 23 in Kansas, 12 in Louisiana, and 14 in Nebraska for a day total of 49 upping his overall total to 459.

Hillary picked up 10 in Kansas, 35 in Louisiana, and 10 in Nebraska for a day total of 55 and 663 overall.

There are also four outstanding delegates in Louisiana and 1 in Nebraska.

Republican Party: Ted Cruz picked up 24 delegates in Kansas, 15 in Kentucky, 18 in Louisiana, and 12 in Maine. This gave him a day total of 69 delegates upping his total to 300.

Donald Trump picked up 9 delegates in Kansas, 17 in Kentucky, 18 in Louisiana, and 9 in Maine. This gave him a day total of 53, upping his total to 382.

Marco Rubio picked up 6 delegates in Kansas, 7 in Kentucky, 5 in Louisiana, and 0 in Maine. This gave him a day total 18 delegates, upping his total to 128.

John Kasich picked up 1 delegate in Kansas, 7 in Kentucky, 0 in Louisiana, and 2 in Maine. This gave her a day total of 10 delegates, upping his total to 35.

There are still 5 outstanding delegates in Louisiana as well as 15 delegates assigned to other candidates that have dropped out of the race.

Remember Republicans have a race in Puerto Rico today and Democrats in Maine. Rubio had the upper hand here due to being of Cuban descent. If that holds he should win with Ted Cruz coming in second. If not Cruz will win followed by Trump and then Rubio.

There is no reason not to think that Sanders should be able to pick up Maine today but Maine has always been an outlier in the northeast. Remember Cruz won yesterday in a state that was considered to be a runaway for Trump.

UPDATE 4:50 PM:

Marco Rubio has won the Puerto Rico Republican Primary overwhelmingly and will take all 23 delegates. This gives him a weekend total of 41 delegates and a total of 151.

The Maine caucus for Democrats is scheduled to end roughly around 7 PM central time so hopefully we will get full results soon after.

UPDATE 7:35 PM:

With 80% reporting, Bernie Sanders has won the Maine Caucus. At this time Sanders has a 14-6 delegate edge over Hillary with 5 still not awarded.

This puts Bernie's weekend delegate take at 63 with an overall total of 473.

Hillary's weekend total is 61 with a total of 669.

Outside of the 6 delegates not delegated in Maine the rest of have been updated, so that naturally means I need to update my numbers as well.

The numbers did not change for Hillary but Bernie saw an additional 2 delegates in Louisiana and an additional 1 in Nebraska.

For the record keepers this runs Bernie's tally to 66, giving Bernie a much needed weekend win in delegates of 66-61

Overall Hillary has the delegate lead of 669-476.