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Thursday, Dec. 5, 2013
Final Polling ProjectionsPosted Thursday, November 1, 2012, at 4:32 PM
We are now under a week from the 2012 Presidential Election. This will serve as my final projection. As I have stated previously this projection is solely from the averages in the state pollings, mind you this is the average and not the latest polling. The averages over the last several elections have been correct almost every time, the one difference was in 2000.
I said in a previous blog that I did not believe that debates in the long run mattered. I was, obviously, proven wrong in that following the first debate when Romney stormed back into the race.
The one thing that I have noticed throughout the last month is that while Romney closed the national gap and has even lead it has not been the full case on the state level.
Anyways on with the projections:
First we have the numbers from the so-called safe states. With those in Obama currently leads Romney 217-191
New Hampshire (4 EV): Obama has lead in nearly every poll since October 1, save two, but those leads have been narrow. The average has him up 48.7 - 47.1, so Obama gets the 4 EVs.
Pennsylvania (20 EV): Pollster has this state as a lean Obama and honestly I am not really sure why, in the last month Romney has never been closer than 3 points and Obama leads the averages 49.5 - 44.5. Obama gets the 20.
After the Northeast, Obama now stands at a 241 - 191 lead
East Coast: the two states here have swung widely over the last few months going back and forth between the two candidates.
Virginia (13 EV): Virgina averages tend to Obama but anyone who looks at the numbers can plainly see that the race is extremely tight. With a 47.8 - 47.4 lead, Obama gets the 13 EVs.
North Carolina (15 EV): This state leans to Romney but since mid October polls have shown either candidate winning or tied. Romney is still staked to a 49.3 - 46.6 average lead so he gets the 15 EVs.
After the East Coast the EVs now stand at Obama leading 254 - 206.
South: One lone state, but one of the most pivotal over the last 20 years
Florida (29 EV): For all intents and purposes this state is tied. Both candidates have had leads over the last month but Romney's largest lead was 3, Obama's 2. Currently the averages have Romney up 48.4 - 47.7 which gives him the 29 EV.
After Florida Romney is now within striking distance trailing Obama now at 235 - 254.
Huge group of states.
Ohio (18 EV): Obama has trailed in only two polls in this state over the last month, but in the other polls his leads have been between 2 and 6. With the averages favoring Obama right now 48.6 - 46.0 the 18 EVs go to him.
Wisconsin (10 EV): Why this state is still a lean is beyond me. The only polls that have been decent for Romney are both Rasmussen that have the race tied. The newest poll out from Republican polling firm Wenzell Strategies has Obama staked to a two point lead. With the averages sitting at Obama in the lead 49.9 - 46.2 he gets the 10 EVs.
Iowa (6 EV): Iowa was once considered a possibility for Romney but that seems to have all but slipped away with Obama leading the averages 48.6 - 45.9 he gets the 6 EVs.
After the Midwest Obama statistically has the win (needing 271 EVs, 288 - 235.
Colorado (9 EV): Over the last weeks Romney has lead in two and been tied in one, the rest have all favored Obama. Obama leads the averages 48.3 - 46.9 and gets the 9 EV.
Nevada (6 EV): Another pipe-dream state for the Romney team seems to be sliding away from them in the final week of polling. Since July Romney has only been tied with Obama in two polls and has lead none of them, Obama gets the 6 EVs with an average lead of 50.0 - 46.4.
After all the states my final polling projection is 303 - 235.
There are several ways that Obama can get to 271 EVs but not all that many fro Romney.
Romney's best shot at winning the election is to take North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin, Colorado, and Nevada. I do not see this happening. If Romney does take Ohio he will not need to win Nevada. In any case, Romney getting above 300 EVs is not a reality from my perspective.
Obama, on the other hand could lose the East Coast, Florida, and Ohio and still win the election.
My personal prediction: I see Obama winning most of the swing states and somehow finding a way to win Florida which will put him at 332 EVs.
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