Post-Convention Polling

Posted Friday, September 21, 2012, at 10:11 AM
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  • This is a good post Michael, although I think these EV totals seem too high for Obama. I say this because many the swing state races are within (or nearly within) the margin of error for the surveys. Which means that statistically speaking, these are dead heats.

    I understand your method, the candidate currently with the lead according to the polls gets the EVs. i just don't think the final results will look like what your model predicts.

    I'd guess that Florida, Colorado, and Nevada all end up red. I agree with the rest of your picks. Adjusting for these three states, the totals would be 282 - 256, in favor of Obama.

    I would not be surprised to see Obama lose the popular vote and still win the election a la Bush 2000.

    -- Posted by Benevolus on Fri, Sep 21, 2012, at 11:28 AM
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    I can see Florida an Colorado swinging to Romney as the polling there has been fairly even, but why Nevada? Romney has not lead in a poll since April ... of last year and has not been tied since October. I am not saying that you are wrong but the trend has been towards Obama since that time. Why not more likely states Iowa and New Hampshire which have actually had Romney in the lead recently?

    -- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Fri, Sep 21, 2012, at 2:49 PM
  • Michael, Shalom. Just for giggles, since it kind of jumped out at me, Ohio offering, above, in your award of EV, you have the "O" right, but you might want to exchange the 'iho,' with a 'bama.' ((^8

    We know what you mean, but Historians, fifty years from now might not understand. Ha.

    November Six, and Seven, should be interesting days. I do pray that all vote, so we can actually see the 'Will of the People,' rather than the 'will of the majority of the minority of people that found the time to vote. . . . or something like that.

    Keep the reports coming.

    -- Posted by Navyblue on Fri, Sep 21, 2012, at 3:09 PM
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    I completely agree Navyblue. I believe that every American that can vote should. There is hardly any excuse not to with all the possibilities out there to vote. Absentee, early, and day of voting. There should never really be any excuse for not voting.

    -- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Fri, Sep 21, 2012, at 4:22 PM
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    Thanks for catching my mistake Navy. It wouldn't seem logical for Ohio to get the EVs considering they already have them.

    -- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Fri, Sep 21, 2012, at 4:24 PM
  • Michael,

    I say Nevada, because its within the margin of error and according to RCP, the trend line for the average of the major polls is working toward a Romney win.

    Even if I am wrong, the point would still stand. It would be 288 - 250 with NV being blue.

    -- Posted by Benevolus on Fri, Sep 21, 2012, at 5:18 PM
  • Nice work.

    -- Posted by Phaerisee on Fri, Sep 21, 2012, at 7:18 PM
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    The interesting thing in Florida is that in the last eight polls that RCP has listed, Romney leads in three but all are within the MoE. In the five that Obama leads only two are within the MoE and one of those is by .1 per cent.

    That is why to this point most sites that are tracking state polls give Florida a slight lean to Obama, instead of it being a toss up.

    -- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Sat, Sep 22, 2012, at 12:17 PM
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    What is even more interesting is the race for control of Congress. As it stands now the Democrats look to hold the Senate, while the Republicans look to hold the House. What is different now from a few months ago is that as recent as late July, early August it looked like a real possibility that the Republicans would gain the Senate.

    Mind you these are just forecasts. The races aren't over until November. It's just something for political junkies to do.

    -- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Sat, Sep 22, 2012, at 12:23 PM
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