We have been hearing, pretty much since President Obama took office, that conservatives were going to mount a major comeback. Cue the TEA Parties and that major comeback turned into a new conservative revolution based on the anger of the believed takeover of America by communists, socialists, fascists, and Nazis. All this anger was supposed to result in Republicans taking back the Senate and the House this year.
After the first round of primaries has occurred that anger seems not to be working out so well. Not a single supposed TEA Party supported candidate has yet to win a primary and every incumbent has won their primaries.
Mid-terms are known for it's radicalism, left and right. We all remember the extreme left chasing Joe Lieberman out of the Democratic Party and yet he still ended up winning the general election. Typically when a big change is coming we generally see it in the primaries. But so far that has not been the case. It is still early but to this point the conservative candidates have not played to par as the more moderate members of the Republican Party are winning the primaries.
Two situations that are still being watched are the race for Senate in Florida. Charlie Crist instead of facing a potential embarrassing and career changing loss in the Republican primary, left the the party in order to run as an independent. This of course, now leaves a moderate conservative and a conservative running against a Democrat. More than likely Crist will probably win the general election taking the majority of moderate Republicans and enough Democrats. But if all the Democrats stay with Meeks and Crist and Rubio split the Republican vote this could spell an upset victory for Meeks.
The other race is in Arkansas. Blanche Lincoln has been senator of Arkansas since the Clinton administration. But her actions, votes, and words over the last four years has angered many Democrats. Enter Bill Halter and she has a fight on her hands in the Democratic primary. She more than likely will win her primary, probably with a run-off. That then puts her up against possibly John Boozman who is currently Arkansas House of Representative member serving the 3rd District. He is very popular in the state and could very well beat Lincoln. This does not necessarily point to anger though. It would be pitting Lincoln who has angered some Democrats but has mostly voted the way Republicans want her to vote, but Boozman is more of a moderate conservative who has voted in some cases that has angered the conservative base of his party. So in reality in November in Arkansas the race could very well be between two moderates of their respective parties.
Just looking at the polls coming out of the states at this point there really does not seem to be that much true anger out there. Even if Republicans pull some upsets and turn a blue seat to a red seat, at this point it is not pointing to a Republican take over of either House in Congress. Not only that in the races where Republicans could potentially take Democratic seats the polls are pointing to conservative take-over. In fact, it looks more like a more of the same year in Congress.
Maybe a little more troubling for the anger crowd is the release of a new poll by Pew Research that asked people of all political stripes how they viewed certain words. Socialism which has been the focal point of the anger over the last two years was viewed negatively by only 59%. While it was one of the highest on the list Militias took the cake with a 65% negativity rating. Maybe the more interesting to some, shocking to others, and outright revolting to some others is that the word Progressive is viewed more positively than Capitalism, 68-52% respectively. The phrase with the biggest upside, which should not be a shock to anyone is family values that comes in at 89%.
It is a very interesting article and if you get a chance you should go read it.
But all the anger that we have continually seen on the news and the 24/7 networks to this point just has not been transitioning into votes. It could be that the bigger elections have not happened yet or it could be that the anger that has been so prominently on display on television has been over reported. My guess is the latter, but we shall see come November.