Keep calm and carry on

The American Automobile Association, as of Thursday morning, tells me that the average price for a gallon of gas in Nebraska is $4.28. Does that reflect your experience at the pump? How is that affecting you? Are you spending discretionary dollars?

I only drive a few miles each day and seldom venture more than a few blocks from Norris Avenue, but I sympathize with those in our outlying areas who must drive 20 miles just to buy a gallon of milk. For those families, driving is not optional, and every increase at the pump is reflected in the household budget. Transportation-dependent businesses feel the squeeze as well, forcing them either to absorb the added cost or pass it along through higher delivery charges.

The concerns about fuel prices and the inflation that follows, being expressed by families and in the marketplace, are real. Dismissing them outright would be both unfair and unwise. History, however, suggests that public sentiment during inflationary periods often becomes darker than the underlying economic fundamentals justify.

We witnessed something similar only a few years ago. During the inflation surge of 2022, economists and market analysts warned of an imminent economic collapse. Gasoline prices soared. Consumers expressed deep pessimism, and talking heads predicted widespread business failures, diminished corporate profits and a prolonged recession.

Some slowdown did occur. Some adjustments had to be made, but the broader economy proved far more resilient than many expected. Employment remained relatively strong. Businesses adapted. Consumers cut back in some areas while continuing to spend in others and communities adjusted rather than folded.

That resilience is particularly familiar in rural America.

People on the Great Plains can ill afford the luxury of panic. Farmers still plant. Truckers still haul freight. Families still commute to work, attend ballgames and support local events even when prices rise. Rural communities have always understood that difficult stretches are part of economic life, not necessarily signs of imminent collapse.

We are also wise to think about the sectors of the economy that will remain comparatively insulated during difficult times. Public schools, community colleges, city and county government, law enforcement, courts, the postal service, public power systems and hospitals tied to Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement continue operating regardless of fluctuations in the broader economy. Beyond that, many private businesses are supported indirectly by those same dollars, from pharmacies and nursing homes to contractors, banks and agricultural suppliers.

Taken together, those public and quasi-public sectors represent a significant portion of the modern rural economy. The percentage is likely lower in a hard-working regional center like McCook than in poorer parts of the country, but the multiplier effect remains substantial. A Social Security payment becomes groceries, a Medicare reimbursement becomes wages and a public works project becomes business for local suppliers and fuel distributors. In smaller communities, especially, those dollars circulate repeatedly through the local economy and help steady the ship during uncertain times.

Personally, I wish the government footprint in our community were smaller, but at times like these, when consumer confidence is critical to small businesses, I’m not too proud to lean on it a bit.

Our underlying economy is as resilient as the homesteaders who built this area and we are unwise to exaggerate the impacts of less than one quarter of elevated fuel costs.

We should, instead, follow the advice of the Brits in WWII. Keep calm and carry on, or in this instance, keep shopping. Go out to dinner, and above all, shop local.