Some good news among the bad for Midwest region

Is the Midwest economy turning around?

Well, yes and no, according to a Creighton University professor who keeps track of things.

Yes, in that a survey of the folks who buy things for companies say they'll be buying a few more things than they have been recently.

No, in that unemployment, which usually lags behind a recovery, is expected to be the highest it's been in more than 20 years.

Economics professor Ernie Goss said he expects the nine state region that includes Nebraska to begin to grow again, but not add any jobs for the rest of the year.

The Business Conditions index, created from a survey of those supply managers in the nine states, rose to 51.7 in July from 49.3 in June and 46.6 in May. Anything above 50.0 is considered to be positive growth.

Nebraska is showing slimmer growth, slipping above growth-neutral with 50.1 for July compared to 45.7 for June and 44.3 in May.

That included 58.9 for new orders, 5.6 for production, 46 on delivery lead time, 47.6 for inventories and 42.4 on employment.

"I expect Nebraska's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to peak at 5.3 percent, its highest level since 1986, in the fourth quarter of this year," Goss said. "I don't expect manufacturing job losses for the state in the second half of 2009. However, I do expect Nebraska to lose non-manufacturing jobs, albeit at a slower pace, for the rest of 2009," he said.

In another throwback to the 1980s, inflation may be in the offing again, thanks to Federal Reserve policies and federal stimulus spending. Be ready to pay more in 2010, Goss said.

So while the professor doesn't have all good news, he has pointed out the light in the end of the tunnel, and it's probably not an approaching train.