'Shhh.' Let's not jinx growing farm economy

In case you didn't notice, McCook jeweler Bill Longnecker made front page news in the Omaha World-Herald this morning. In the World-Herald's lead article, titled "Income boom has farmers on edge," Longnecker was asked how farmers were doing economically this year. "Shhh, you're not supposed to talk about that," he said.

Long-time business people had to smile when they read that, because, throughout the history of Southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas, farmers have been reluctant to admit it when times are good.

They have good reason. Because farmers and ranchers have endured so much -- droughts, blizzards, grasshoppers and sharp price swings to name a few -- they are afraid they will jinx themselves if they admit their economic fortunes are improving.

So, this year, it's a little like walking on egg shells when the subject of farm income is raised. We find out what we can from newspaper reports, which show this year that national farm income is expected to hit a record $73.7 billion, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. That's up 24.5 percent from last year. The statistics are also encouraging for Nebraska, where farm income is expected to exceed $3.6 billion in 2004. That would be 12 percent higher than last year's record $3.23 billion and would place average farm income in the state at more than $70,000.

On the other side of the coin, farmers are facing higher costs themselves, in large part because of the increase in oil prices. As a result, fertilizer and diesel fuel costs are on the increase. As Mark Jagels of Davenport, the chairman of the Nebraska Corn Board, told Chris Clayton of the World-Herald: "It's tough to get upbeat when we know what's staring us in the face."

So, yes, farmers are doing better, finally able to pay down debt and buy equipment before year's end for tax planning purposes. But, also, understandably, they remain cautious because the income collapse of 2002 is still a vivid memory. That was at the peak of the drought, when yields plunged to pitiful levels.

Times are better, economically, on the area's farms than they were two years ago ... no question about it. But, as farmers and businessmen have learned through the years, they can't get carried away by success. They must balance today's success with yesterday's realities and tomorrow's prospects.

Because of that, it's all right to say "shhh" every now and then. But let's balance that out a little. Given that times are better than they have been, farmers and businessmen are entitled to smile a little more and to exchange a few high fives.