2020 Presidential Election Begins Now

Pardoning for those who have been running for the Democratic nomination since early this year, we are now 100 days from the Iowa caucus, which to me officially begins the 2020 presidential election.

My plan is to track the Democratic nomination through the Democratic Convention and then to track the polling through Election Day. I am not going to follow the Republican primary at all. There's no point. tRump is going to win the nomination. Despite this, several states Repub Parties have decided to cancel their primaries, depriving those states Repubs the chance to vote. As the Party allows this is perfectly acceptable, just strange.

Who is actually in contention for the Dems?

At this point there are are only four candidates that have a legitimate chance to win the nomination, so I will focus on those candidates: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and surprisingly "Mayor" Pete Buttigieg. So for the moment who will I not be keeping track of?

Kamala Harris

Amy Klobuchar

Corey Booker

Julian Castro

I will also not be covering the joke candidates:

Tulsi Gabbard

Marriane Williamson

Andrew Yang

Tom Steyer

Joe Sestak (who I wasn't even aware was running)

Wayne Messam

John Delaney

Steve Bullock

Michael Bennett

I will also not be discussing any other late comers or those from wild speculation:

Hillary Clinton

Michelle Obama

Michael Bloomberg (who has already said he wasn't running then decided to potentially run but SKIP the first four primaries)

Now that this is out of the way it's time to focus on the first four primaries and where the top four candidates sit as of now.

The First Four and Primary Rules

The first four states to hold their primaries (or caucuses) will be Iowa (caucus) on February 3, New Hampshire (primary) on February 11, Nevada (caucus) on February 20, and South Carolina (primary) on February 29.

The next primary after this is Super Tuesday on March 3, which in years past has decided the clear front runner if not the winner. But more on that later.

Polling

In reporting on polling and who's leading and where others stand I will only use state polls (despite how unreliable they are). Even when we get to the national election I will no longer look at national polling. Not because they are wrong (the national polls correctly showed that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 by 3%), but because they are irrelevant. Like it or not, the national outcome has absolutely no bearing on who becomes the next president in this country. 535 delegates, elected by their parties decides who becomes the president. How 535 men and women is representative of over 300 million people is beyond me, but that's another discussion for another time.

Delegate Allocation

Each candidate will receive delegates based on the proportion of the primary votes they receive. There is a really big caveat. A candidate has to receive a minimum of 15% of the vote in order to get a delegate. In the off-chance that no candidates get to that 15% (which shouldn't be a possibility, even in a crowded field) whoever gets the most votes will hold the determination of who else gets delegates based on getting 50% of the winner's vote (in other words, if the winner receives 10% of the vote, any candidate at and above 5% will get delegates). If only one candidate gets above 15% they take all the delegates (even if they only receive 15% and three other candidates are at 14%).

Superdelegates

Though the dreaded superdelegate is still a thing in the Democratic primary they have lost a substantial amount of their power. While they can still pledge whenever they want they can't vote unless a winner isn't declared after the first ballot at the convention (one last thing to keep track of).

So where do we stand right now:

State Polling and (way to) early projections

Iowa Caucus (41 pledged delegates)

Sanders SHOULD be the front runner in Iowa (and all caucus), but he is struggling in the state he won in 2016. The latest polling (published on Nov 9) shows:

Elizabeth Warren at 20%

Mayor Pete at 19%

Bernie Sanders at 17%

Joe Biden at 15%

If the caucus were held now the breakdown would look like something below (though there are other state laws that may supercede the the national Democratic rules):

Warren 8

Buttigieg 8

Sanders 7

Biden 6

That would leave 12 delegates pledged in another way

New Hampshire primaries (24 delegates)

The New Hampshire primary has ended and launched candidacies in the past on both sided. The latest poll (published on October 29) shows:

Bernie Sanders at 21%

Elizabeth Warren at 18%

Joe Biden at 15%

I have not included Mayor Pete because right now he is polling at 10%. He is the only other candidate polling in double digits

If the primary were held today it may look something like it is below:

Sanders 5 (12)

Warren 4 (12)

Biden 4 (10)

Buttigieg 0 (8)

This would lead 11 delegates left to be awarded

Nevada caucuses (36 delegates)

The latest poll (published on November 4) shows:

Joe Biden at 29%

Bernie Sanders at 19%

Elizabeth Warren at 19%

If the caucus were held today it may look something like this:

Biden 10 (20)

Sanders 7 (19)

Warren 7 (19)

Buttigieg 0 (8)

South Carolina primaries (54 delegates)

The largest amount of delegates given before Super Tuesday is the primary right before it in South Carolina. The latest poll (published October 24) shows:

Joe Biden at 30%

Elizabeth Warren at 19%

As of now there are only two candidates above the 15% threshold. Sanders and Mayor Pete's struggles with the African-American community will be the story in the early part of the process

If the primary was held today it might look something like this:

Biden 16 (36)

Warren 10 (29)

These numbers would definitely be higher with only two reaching the threshold but I don't have the mathematical skill or knowledge to accurately predict)

Sanders 0 (19)

Buttigieg 0 (8)

So, after the first four primary/caucus it does appear to really be a two person race. Once the votes actually start this will change.