April Super Tuesday

April 26 is the biggest day of primaries in April. There are four contests in both parties consisting of Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, and Delaware. The Democratic primary continues its slugfest down the stretch. At this point in the Republican primary Donald Trump is the only candidate that can reach the nomination before the convention. That is where things got strange this week as both Ted Cruz and John Kasich released almost identical statements that from this point forward they essentially would be campaigning for their supporters to vote for the candidate in second place, simply in order to keep Trump from capturing the nominations before the convention.

With that let's look at the races.

REPUBLICAN:

Connecticut

Trump currently leads Kasich and Cruz with an average of 57-28-19 and in the last poll 54-27-9. This appears to be an easy win for Trump and it looks possible that Cruz's support has collapsed. www.fivethirtyeight.com has Trump's odds of winning the state at more than 99%.

Maryland

Trump leads Kasich and Cruz with an average of 49-22-22 and the last poll 55-21-19. This seems like another easy win for Trump and the actual contest will be who finishes in second and if they can take enough delegates away from Trump. 538 currently lists Trump's odds of winning the contest at more than 99%. His support in this state has increased since his convincing win in New York.

Pennsylvania:

Trump leads Cruz and Kasich with an average of 48-27-24 and the last poll 51-24-22. This state has pretty much stayed the same over the past month. 538 currently lists Trump's odds of winning the contest at more than 99%. What will be interesting to watch in this states is whether or not Kasich could beat out Cruz.

Rhode Island:

There has not been a lot of polling in Rhode Island but of the polls that we do have Trump leading Kasich and Cruz with an average of 60-22-12 and the last poll 61-23-13. This appears to be a cake walk for Trump and 538 has his odds of winning at more than 99%.

What it boils down to in tomorrow's contests is that Trump is going to win but the question is whether or not Kasich will be able to get enough support to steal delegates away from Trump.

DEMOCRATIC:

Connecticut:

Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders with an average of 49-46 and in the last poll 48-46. After her somewhat convincing win in New York last week her support in Connecticut actually collapsed. On April 24 538 had Clinton's chances of winning the state at 91%, after the latest polling her chances of winning have fallen to 77%. This along with a couple of other states is a closed primary, typically meaning that unless you specify that you are either a Democrat or a Republican you are not allowed to vote. It will be interesting to see how that affects the contest.

Maryland:

Clinton currently leads Sanders with an average of 55-36 and in the last poll 50-44. This seems like it should be an easy pick up for Clinton but the fact that Clinton's support in this state appears to have collapsed to only a 6 point lead could spell some trouble. However, 538 still lists Clinton's odds of winning at 97%.

Pennsylvania:

Clinton currently leads Sanders with an average of 55-39 and in the last poll 51-41. This state according to 538 is Clinton's best chance of a win with over 99% chance of winning. Yet again, her polling since New York in this state has collapsed. The first two polls after New York her leads were 26 and 28 but the last two polls were 11 and 10. This will be another state to watch and it will depend on just how restrictive the closed primary system is.

Sanders currently leads Clinton with an average of 46-45 and in the last poll 49-44. There have been relatively little polling in this state but despite that 538 gives Sanders a 60% of winning.

April 26 is going to be interesting in the Democratic primary. Clinton could win all the primaries, Sanders could win all the primaries, or it could be an even match. The Democratic primary is going to be the ones to watch as they will be competitive.

There has been almost no polling in Delaware for either party and 538 will not even venture a prediction on the races but on the Democratic side Clinton leads the one poll 45-38 with an amazing 17% undecided. On the Republican side Trump leads Kasich and Cruz in the one poll 55-18-15.

UPDATE 7:00:

Maryland has been called for Clinton and Trump. Connecticut and Pennsylvania have also been called for Trump. Remember it was already a foregone conclusion that Trump would win all the contests today, what is to be decided is how close the races will be and how many delegates can be kept from him.

UPDATE 8:00:

Donald Trump is projected to win all five primaries. Hillary Clinton is projected to win Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Bernie Sanders is leading in Rhode Island and Connecticut.

Remember, on the Republican side the difference will be the margin of victories and what if any delegates can be kept from Trump. Delaware and Maryland are winner take all states so Trump will pick up those delegates (16 and 38 respectively). Pennsylvania is a proportional/winner take all state so we will have to wait and see how that bares out. Connecticut (28) and Rhode Island (19) are proportional. In those two states Trump is currently leading Connecticut with 60% and Rhode Island with 66%. If those results hold Trump will take the majority of those as well.

UPDATE 8:20:

Bernie Sanders is projected to win Rhode Island and is still leading in Connecticut, the only primary still not called.

UPDATE 9:40:

Hillary Clinton is projected to win Connecticut, coming from down 4,000 votes at one point to walk away with the state. With that all states have been called. I will not know for sure the true delegate count until tomorrow. However, I will be driving to Nebraska tomorrow to go to my dad's retirement ceremony. I will have a full update when I return on either Friday or Saturday.

Again, I do apologize for the lateness of this as I was out of town for the last two days, but here are the final results along with the delegate count.

REPUBLICANS:

CONNECTICUT:

Donald Trump - 58%

John Kasich - 28%

Ted Cruz - 12%

Donald Trump - 28/28 delegates (Winner take all)

Delaware:

Donald Trump - 61%

Joh Kasich - 20%

Ted Cruz - 16%

Donald Trump - 16/16 delegates (Winner take all)

MARYLAND:

Donald Trump - 54%

John Kasich - 23%

Ted Cruz - 19%

Donald Trump - 38/38 delegates (Winner take all)

PENNSYLVANIA:

Donald Trump - 57%

Ted Cruz - 22%

John Kasich - 19%

Donald Trump - 17/17 delegates (only 17 were awarded on primary night. The other 54 will be awarded at a later date.)

RHODE ISLAND:

Donald Trump - 64%

John Kasich - 24%

Ted Cruz - 10%

Donald Trump - 11/19 delegates

John Kasich - 5/19 delegates

Ted Cruz - 2/9 delegates

Just an aside here but Trump did not lose a single county on Tuesday.

WEEK DELEGATES:

Donald Trump - 110 delegates

John Kasich - 5 delegates

Ted Cruz - 2 delegates

OVERALL DELEGATES:

NEEDED TO WIN:

Donald Trump - 957 delegates

Trump needs to win 56% of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination before the convention. Not out of the realm of possibilities but may need to win a couple of states in the mountain west to ensure that he hits that number

Ted Cruz - 562 delegates

Cruz has been mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination before the convention.

John Kasich - 154 delegates

Kasich has been mathematically eliminated from the winning the nomination before the convention.

DEMOCRATS:

CONNECTICUT:

Hillary Clinton - 52%

Bernie Sanders - 46%

Hillary Clinton - 28/55 delegates

Bernie Sanders - 27/55 delegates

DELAWARE:

Hillary Clinton - 60%

Bernie Sanders - 39%

Hillary Clinton - 12/21 delegates

Bernie Sanders - 9/21 delegates

MARYLAND:

Hillary Clinton - 63%

Bernie Sanders - 33%

Hillary Clinton - 61/95 delegates

Bernie Sanders - 34/95 delegates

PENNSYLVANIA:

Hillary Clinton - 56%

Bernie Sanders - 44%

Hillary Clinton - 106/189 delegates

Bernie Sanders - 83/189 delegates

RHODE ISLAND:

Bernie Sanders - 55%

Hillary Clinton - 43%

Bernie Sanders - 13/24 delegates

Hillary Clinton - 11/24 delegates

WEEK DELEGATES:

Hillary Clinton - 218 delegates

Bernie Sanders - 166 delegates

OVERALL DELEGATES:

NEEDED TO WIN:

Hillary Clinton - 1,661 delegates

Clinton needs to win 36% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination before the convention. At this point in the race Hillary can take losses and still win. At this point it has become much easier for her to clinch.

Bernie Sanders - 1,374 delegates

Sanders needs to win 64% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination before the convention. It is extremely difficult for Sanders to win the nomination at this point. He is going to need to start winning and winning big. At this point in the race he can no longer simply win by 15% or less and hope to win the nomination.

REVIEW:

For once the polls were fairly accurate on all the races. One thing to note is that in this particular Super Tuesday many more Democrats went to the polls than did Republicans and by overwhelming numbers. You cannot simply state that there are more Democrats than Republicans in these states because that does not necessarily hold true.

In exit poll after exit poll on Tuesday Democrats by and large felt that the race on their side was brining the party together, thus higher number of voters. On the Republican side it was universally felt that the Republican nomination was dividing the party, thus a lover number of voters.