Mid-America business conditions show modest growth, rising inflations

OMAHA, Neb. — The latest survey results from Creighton University's Mid-America Business Conditions Index reveal a mixed economic landscape for April, with modest growth tempered by persistent inflationary pressures across the region spanning from Minnesota to Arkansas.

The overall Business Conditions Index surged to 52.5, marking its highest level since September 2023, after two consecutive months below the growth neutral threshold. However, the region's manufacturing sector experienced a downturn, shedding jobs for the fourth consecutive month.

Amidst concerns over a looming recession, supply managers reported a wage gain of 3.5% over the past year, falling short of keeping pace with inflation. Moreover, the number of involuntary job separations surged by 24.5% over the same period, reflecting underlying challenges in the labor market.

In Kansas, the Business Conditions Index expanded to 51.5, indicating improved economic conditions compared to the previous month. However, employment remained a concern, with a notable decrease in job losses over the past year.

Similarly, Nebraska saw a slight uptick in its Business Conditions Index, reaching 50.1, signaling a return to growth after consecutive months below the neutral threshold. Despite this, employment figures remained stagnant, highlighting ongoing labor market challenges.

Supply managers voiced apprehension regarding escalating input costs, with expectations of a 5.3% expansion over the next six months. The wholesale price gauge, though slightly down from the previous month, remained elevated, indicating sustained inflationary pressures.

Looking ahead, economic optimism waned in April, with the Business Confidence Index hitting its lowest level since January 2024. Concerns over worsening business conditions persist, albeit showing improvement from the previous month's survey.

Inventories saw a modest increase as manufacturers anticipated greater sales in the coming months. However, trade took a hit, with export numbers declining due to the strengthening U.S. dollar, making American goods less competitive abroad.

The survey, conducted across nine states, serves as a vital tool for gauging economic trends in the Mid-America region. Despite pockets of growth, challenges such as inflationary pressures and labor market instability loom large, shaping the economic outlook for the months ahead.

The next set of survey results for May is scheduled for release on June 3, 2024, offering further insights into the evolving economic landscape of the region.