La Niņa affects our weather, unless it doesn't

Thanks to a strong La Niņa in the Pacific, we should have less snow than normal this winter, unless we have more.

Such is the dilemma of weather forecasters when asked to make predictions for the next few months.

La Niņa, you may remember, is a patch of water along the equator in the Pacific Ocean, which, although it may be only three or four degrees cooler than normal, occurs across thousands of miles and lasts from 6 months to several years.

It has been found to influence the weather in the United States, but it isn't the end-all when it comes to weather -- many other factors can over The National Weather Service Office in Goodland, Kansas, took a look at the latest data and came up with the conclusion we opened with above.

Yes, Goodland has usually received less snow than normal in years when La Niņa is active, ranging from 54 percent less than normal in 1971 to 1 percent less than normal in 2007, there were 15 such years reported since 1950. In three other years, 1970, 1973 and 1983, snowfall bucked predictions -- 1983 saw 175 percent of normal snowfall.

So far, so good in the prediction business.

The model breaks down somewhat for Imperial, Nebraska, and even more for Culbertson, however, where the monitoring station received less than normal snowfall during eight La Niņa years and more than normal on nine years, with 1983 again the rebel, at 111 percent of normal snowfall.

The National Weather Service does a remarkable job forecasting the weather, and, thanks to ever-increasing computer power analyzing more and more data, they will continue to get better.

Thursday's snow drives home the point that we need to be ready for winter, of course, regardless of predictions. At the end of the year, however, it will be interesting to see how this year's La Niņa mystery plays out.

You can view the Goodland NWS La Niņa report here.