Here's hoping the researchers know their stuff

Friday's headline, "Researchers say economy looking up," might have been more accurate with "but ..." added at the end.

Yes, the state seems to continue to recover from the September 11 attacks, and low interest rates have boosted those involved in construction, mining and natural resources.

"But ..." other factors, out of control, continue to place an implied question mark at the end of any statement predicting economic recovery.

While economic information is averaged across the state, we are not really "One Nebraska" as Sen. Ben Nelson used as a theme while governor.

In this case, however, there is no one to blame for the east-west division except Mother Nature.

Both the cattle and grain industries have shown recovery, but because of the weather, those in the eastern part of the state have enjoyed a better lift, because, as anyone who has looked outside lately knows, the drought continues in the west.

According to John Austin of the UNL Bureau of Business Research, "the drought in western Nebraska has limited the recover (while) eastern Nebraska irrigators have done well with their crops and their incomes.

"Good beef prices, combined with good grain prices will result in farm income in 2004 slightly above the 10 year average from 1993-2002."

After that, farm income should stay flat in 2005 and begin a slight gain in 2006.

That is followed by another "but ..." however, pointing out that the continued drought and the issue of bovine spongiform encephalopathy or Mad Cow disease were combining to hold the lid on growth.

Nebraskans have always been affected by a blessing and a curse. The blessing is that our economy seems to be somewhat insulated from national recessions. The curse is that our economy seems to be somewhat insulated from national recoveries as well.

Nebraska still has some $2 billion in net farm income, but non-farm business is so important that the results of the September 11 attacks combined with a poor farm year in 2002 combined to create a major slowdown in Nebraska's economic advance. That slowdown has sent ripples all the way from Main Street to the Unicameral.

"But ..." we have faith that University and Nebraska Forecast Council members are right when they say that the state's economic future is looking brighter.

The two research groups are pinning their hopes on analysis of a wide sampling of the state's businesses. There's every reason to hope that they are right.