The numbers behind the numbers

Friday, November 9, 2012

At first glance, the presidential election results look similar to what was projected. Obama received a little over 3 million more votes than Romney did which accounts for about a three percent edge and he garnered 332 electoral votes to Romney's 206 (Romney has conceded Florida, although it has not been officially called yet). So it was close, but not as close as many were predicting.

But the real story lies in the numbers behind the numbers and it's a dire warning for Republicans in national and state wide elections. White voters dropped 2 percentage points from the 2008 election and are expected to drop two more points before the 2016 election and the President received only 39 percent of that vote. But he won 93 percent of the black vote, 75 percent of the Asian vote, 71 percent of the Hispanic vote, and 58 percent of the female vote. In addition, he won the 18-to-44-year-old male vote, the college educated vote and young people (18-24) voted in larger numbers than they did in 2008.

So how do we interpret those numbers? For several years, the minority population has been increasing and the white population has been decreasing and that trend will continue. The experts predict that by the year 2050, whites will be a minority population in this country. Now the Republicans have this information too and that's why they ran perhaps the worst presidential campaign ever. They catered to the extreme right wing of the party and lost the election because of it. That portion of the Republican Party disrespects women and minorities and when you disrespect someone, you can't expect them to vote for you.

Karl Rove and other prominent Republicans were shocked at the outcome because they went through the entire election cycle with blinders on. They honestly didn't think they had alienated a large portion of American voters by their rhetoric. They were living in a bubble.

This was an election that should have been easily won by the Republicans. Obama promised "change we can believe in" in 2008 and he didn't deliver on that promise. The economy was stagnant for most of the past four years and he didn't do much to change that. Although he had some accomplishments, most people would agree he had more failures and that's the platform the Republicans should have ran on. But they didn't. They focused on their extreme right base and by the time Romney started coming back to the middle, it was too late.

It was also a perfect time for them to retake the Senate but because the Senate is based on statewide elections, they weren't able to do that, either, for the same reasons. So instead of having a Republican president, a Republican Senate and a Republican House, they only have one of those because of the hateful nature of their politics. And if they don't change, the next election, which will most likely see Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, will be a carbon copy of this one.

George H.W. Bush spoke when he was President about the Republican Party being 'a big tent' where everyone was welcome. The last 20 years have seen that idea go out the window because the party has become exclusive rather than inclusive. That spells doom for them in all elections except for the House of Representatives where they've managed to gerrymander districts that almost guarantee they will keep control of that arm of government for the foreseeable future.

I've said before that the most important thing a President does is not the economy or defense or education; it's the appointment of Supreme Court Justices, because they serve for life. Long after a President is gone from office, his appointees will still be around, crafting the laws that govern this nation. It's expected that Obama could have as many as three appointments over the next four years and that would change the nature of the Court and it's rulings for the next thirty years. And if he's succeeded by Hillary Clinton, it's likely to end up being an all Democratic court with the exception of Chief Justice John Roberts.

The stakes are always high in state and national elections and in this past election, the Republicans made a fatal flaw that could haunt them for decades to come.

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  • This is a pretty good analysis. The election for many veered from an election about the economy and foreign affairs to an election about financial status and race. Here's another article. It may help people understand why the republican mistake on race may haunt them for - as this writer says - a very long time ---

    -- Posted by bob s on Fri, Nov 9, 2012, at 3:47 PM
  • 2 point spread in popular vote is nothing to get comfortable period with regardless with congress still red and senate still short of fillabuster proof so expect more of the same regardless of how stupid it is on both sides unwilling to find a middle ground on very few important issues. Hillary is a long ways from being in Obamas White House chair but who knows if Obama will even make it through his last term with all the terrorist in the world both domestic and overseas wanting revenge for a variety of reasons...... history always seems to repeat

    -- Posted by Cornwhisperer on Fri, Nov 9, 2012, at 6:27 PM
  • Below is what the real numbers will be after this disappointing election. Oh, and higher taxes.

    A major coal company announced more than 160 layoffs across three subsidiaries this week, becoming perhaps the first company to follow through on threats to make cutbacks in the event of a second President Obama term.

    Robert Murray, a vocal Mitt Romney supporter and CEO of Murray Energy Corporation, began to inform workers of the layoffs the day after Obama won re-election. He announced 102 layoffs at UtahAmerican Energy Inc. and another 54 layoffs at The American Coal Company in Illinois.

    -- Posted by Ed on Sat, Nov 10, 2012, at 2:16 AM
  • Ed

    It wasn't the election of President Obama that has prompted Robert Murray to be vindictive towards some of his employees. It seems more related to the safety violations and penalties the company received associated with the Crandall Canyon Mine disaster which resulted in nine deaths.

    About 100 of the layoffs are at UtahAmerican, the subsidiary that operates the Crandall Canyon Mine. In 2007, a collapse at that mine killed nine people. Two months ago the company agreed to pay about $1 million in civil penalties as part of a settlement related to failures and violations that led to the collapse.

    Blaming someone else for your own shortcomings seems to be a Republican mandate these days. If the company had followed safety guidelines those men would still be alive.

    -- Posted by Geezer on Sat, Nov 10, 2012, at 7:34 AM
  • More on the real numbers of the election. Sadly, these people are now really disappointed with this election. These are Americans not Republicans or Democrats just real people.

    Obama was "fired up" and so were the voters, and so now, the mass firings begin. Here's a collection of today's headlines. Please say a prayer for the families who will be suffering. Had Romney won, many of these companies would now be hiring.

    Teco Coal officials announce layoffs

    Momentive Inc plans temporary layoffs for 150

    Wilkes-Barre officials to announce mandatory layoffs

    600 layoffs at Groupon

    More layoffs announced at Aniston Weapons Incinerator

    Murray Energy confirms 150 layoffs at 3 subsidiaries

    130 laid off in Minnesota dairy plant closure

    Stanford brake plant to lay off 75

    Turbocare, Oce to lay off more than 220 workers

    ATI plans to lay off 172 workers in North Richland Hills

    SpaceX claims its first victims as Rocketdyne lays off 100

    Providence Journal lays off 23 full-time employees

    CVPH lays off 17

    New Energy lays off 40 employees

    102 Utah miners laid off because of 'war on coal', company says

    US Cellular drops Chicago, cuts 640 jobs

    Career Education to cut 900 jobs, close 23 campuses

    Vestas to cut 3,000 more jobs

    First Energy to cut 400 jobs by 2016

    Mine owner blames Obama for layoffs (54 fired last night)

    Canceled program costs 115 jobs at Ohio air base

    AMD trims Austin workforce -- 400 jobs slashed

    100 workers lose jobs as Caterpillar closes plant in Minnesota

    Exide to lay off 150 workers

    TE Connectivity to close Guilford plant, lay off 620

    More Layoffs for Major Wind Company (3,000 jobs cut)

    Cigna to lay off 1,300 workers worldwide

    Ameridose to lay off hundreds of workers


    -- Posted by Ed on Sun, Nov 11, 2012, at 3:27 AM
  • it would be interesting to see how much money the above companies spent supporting Williard and other canidates.

    -- Posted by president obama on Sun, Nov 11, 2012, at 6:10 PM
  • Ed

    Many of the companies you list are laying off workers due to other factors than the President being re-elected. Below are several examples.

    Caterpillar Inc., a top equipment maker in the solid waste industry, said it will idle more factories and production lines as orders slump due to slowing demand.

    "Dealers are buying less than they are selling," Mike DeWalt, director of investor relations for Peoria, Ill.-based Caterpillar, said at the Robert W. Baird 2012 Industrial Conference in Chicago.

    With the global sales decreasing as inventory builds up, new equipment orders have waned in recent months. In turn, Caterpillar must make reduce production, DeWalt said. The company has been hit hard by the a slowdown in global mining, a sector that had buoyed Cat as the recession in Europe and a stop-and-start recovery in the U.S. hurt construction gear sales.

    A spokesman for the company said Caterpillar would idle factories both inside and outside the U.S. Some, he added, will be shuttered for a week or two at a time while others will transition to a four-day workweek. The upcoming cutbacks follow production cuts over last summer. The temporary shuttering of factories will continue into early 2013, the spokesman said.

    "It has impacted production and support and management employees," said Jim Dugan, the company's spokesman. He added that temporary shutdowns are, "not across the board and even can vary within the same factory."

    "The primary goal is to lower production levels for the short term," Dugan wrote in an email.

    Exide has a long history of toxic waste sites and is now having to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to address these issues. Maybe we need to say a Prayer for those that kept their job and those that live close to one of their toxic sites.

    -- Posted by Geezer on Mon, Nov 12, 2012, at 8:32 AM
  • Geezer you must be eating some of those canidates that bigdawg talked about. Just joking. I do not wish to be right about what this administration will do to our economy, but sadly the evidence will just continue to build.

    -- Posted by Ed on Mon, Nov 12, 2012, at 11:20 AM
  • US Cellular is dropping jobs and a few markets, including Chicago, St. Louis, and Central Illinois due to low market penetration. They don't have any 4g in those markets and are bound to lose market share. Instead of spending money in areas they are far behind they're selling them Sprint. I do find it ironic that they are dropping the city their headquarters are located at.

    Groupon has been having financial problems for awhile now Especially after shooting themselves in the foot with their Super Bowl commercial. Their stock is down almost 90% since their IPO last year. They also alluded to these layoffs in their last earnings call.

    For the Brake Company the owners stated there is lower demand and excess global supply of brake parts. These were also announced October 29th.

    Cigna's jobs are company wide across the world, it started with 300 jobs in Europe. After the layoffs they still have 3600 more people employed now than in 2009. The jobs are mainly support staff and they are still looking at hiring high skilled high paid professionals.

    Anniston Weapons Incinerator got finished disposing their chemical weapons stockpile in sept. 2011 and have been in the process of closing the facility since. The facility should be closed in the 2nd quarter of 2015.

    Momentive Inc. temporary layoffs are from Nov. 12th to Nov. 25th (13 days) with workers returning the 26th. This is due to reduced demand.

    AMD has always been a distant 2nd to Intel in terms of market share. A soft PC market along with not able to get their chips in tablets and phones has put them in a cash crunch.

    For Vesta apparently interest in wind turbines is declining along cheaper turbines from China.

    New energy layoffs are due to a slow ethanol industry. High corn prices, high ethanol supply despite fewer production facilities, and lower gasoline demand have led to a slow down.

    The Ameridose layoffs are because its sister company New England Compounding Center fungal meningitis outbreak (424 infected, 31 dead). Regulators have had a temporary closure on Ameridose's facilities while they go through to make sure they are upto code. So far they have found problems with the sterilizing process.

    The Providence Journal is a newspaper. Many newspapers are suffering due to lower advertising money as other more effective advertising models have come in the past few years. They would be one of them.

    TE Connectivity is facing lower demand.

    Rocketdyne is because of fewer government contracts SpaceX does have many openings in this exact same field though.

    Those are just ones I took the time to look up.

    -- Posted by npwinder on Mon, Nov 12, 2012, at 10:49 PM
  • Coal trains are on sidings all over the place, and have been for several months. Our country is swimming in natural gas.

    -- Posted by hulapopper on Mon, Nov 12, 2012, at 11:06 PM
  • Thanks for these updates, but all you do is prove my point. Bad economy = loss of jobs + this administrations bloated government costs = further cuts. This admistration is not good for business. Even JC Pennys is on the verge of bankruptcy. Walk around McCook and ask every small business owner if they think this administration will be be good or bad not only for their business, but for their profits. If the majority say he will be good I will stand corrected, but I am very confident on the outcome of that poll.

    -- Posted by Ed on Mon, Nov 12, 2012, at 11:12 PM
  • This is only the start I fear. As I write this there are Petitions from over 30 states to withdraw from the United States and form their own countries. Check it out at seems a little more drastic than just a kneejerk reaction to an election.

    -- Posted by quick13 on Tue, Nov 13, 2012, at 11:27 AM
  • It's extremely easy to start those petitions. I could start one for us to bomb Canada for no reason at all.

    There has also been petition to let states leave the union the past few elections. The only difference is those ones weren't started on websites that required the White House to respond after 25,000 names.

    Its like after every election people start talking to Immigration lawyers on how do they gain citizenship in Canada. Many people may ask, very few actually follow through.

    -- Posted by npwinder on Tue, Nov 13, 2012, at 1:32 PM
  • Ed

    You must be living in a different Nebraska than me. Saying Nebraska is worse off now or possibly in the future because of the Presidents Policies, is based more along political ideology rather than a review of the facts.

    The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) has provided Nebraska with the funds necessary to ensure the states economy continues to support our citizens through its various programs. Let us take a look at a few of the State administered programs that received Federal Funding through the ARRA.

    Medicaid funds received by Nebraska through ARRA as of Sept. 30, 2012 are $329,888,741.

    Using 2010 data, 25,600 seniors and 38,200 people with disabilities were receiving health coverage through Medicaid. In 2010 there were 12,610 nursing home residents of which 6,680 (52.9%) were covered by Medicaid. In 2007 there was 19,000 Seniors and people with disabilities receiving Medicaid Home and Community based services. Based on the latest statistics available, there were 16,500 direct care workers providing long-term care services in Nebraska, many of whom would lose their jobs if Medicaid cut back eligibility for long-term care services. Additionally, this direct loss in jobs would have an adverse multiplier effect throughout the Nebraska economy. The average cost of a semi private Nursing Home room in Nebraska was $56,900 in 2010.

    Based on the latest data available, in Nebraska there were 270,000 informal caregivers typically family members and friends, who provided help for seniors and people with disabilities needing long term care. If Medicaid's long term care coverage is diminished, the burden on these caregivers lives would increase exponentially. It would also cause havoc in families lives as more and more people are forced to give up jobs to take care of their loved ones.

    Maybe we should also ask those business owners if they have parents, children, relatives, or friends that rely on Medicaid for health coverage. We should also ask them if they could afford to make up the difference if Medicaid lost its funding.

    Nebraska State Education Fiscal Stabilization Fund has received $233,955,733 through Sept. 30, 2012.

    Nebraska State Fiscal Stabilization Fund Government Services Correctional Services has received $52,053,764 through Sept. 30, 2012.

    Nebraska has received $369,020,863 for Infrastructure Projects.

    Nebraska has received $79,767,786 for Special Education Individuals with Disabilities.

    The list goes on and on with the Grand Total of ARRA funds received by Nebraska through Sept. 30, 2012 being a whopping $1,260,739,622 ($1.26 billion).

    You can't persuade me that $1.26 billion pumped into the economy hasn't been a life saver for Nebraska businesses and Nebraska workers that was able to keep their jobs in the sectors where these funds were utilized.

    If this hasn't helped the Nebraska economy we better initiate an audit of State spending.

    -- Posted by Geezer on Wed, Nov 14, 2012, at 1:13 PM
  • Geezer if you think the below is good for the USA or Nebraska you are sadly blinded by party and not what is good for the USA as a whole. I never spoke specifically about Nebraska I am speaking about our country, the USA. I speak as an American not Republican nor Democrat. Please pay particular attention to Ben Franklins comments. Lastly, today Obama said he wants to increase taxes by 1.6 trillion dollars.

    The below is from Investor Daily.

    If the next four years are anything like the last four, look out below.

    Since Barack Obama took his first oath of office four years ago, our national debt has gone up 50%. The U.S. dollar has depreciated 5%. And unemployment has risen 12%. All since January 20, 2009.

    Meanwhile, the U.S. government has lost its triple-A credit rating for the first time in history.

    Unemployment is stuck at close to double digits. And that's just the official rate. The real unemployment rate, the one economists call "U6," that counts those who have given up looking for work, is 15%.

    23 million Americans have no job. Millions more are reduced to working part-time in menial tasks.

    With such a large slice of the population out of work and broke, 46 million Americans are now living on food stamps. That's 1/7th of our country!

    We're turning into a welfare state at exactly the time the government is going broke.

    49% of American households get government handouts--even more than the 47% Mitt Romney so infamously cited. Never before in history have so many people depended on Uncle Sam for housing, food and health care. Many of these millions are truly needy and deserving. But half the country pays no federal taxes--that's a problem!

    Mitt Romney gave it the old college try. But when half the population sees the government as a paycheck, they're never going to elect someone who wants to cut back on the handouts. Like Ben Franklin said, when people find that they can vote themselves money, we're in trouble.

    Meanwhile, Obama is running up more debt in one term than all other presidents combined, from George Washington to George W. Bush. The U.S. has now accumulated the biggest debt in world history and it is growing by $45,000 per second.

    -- Posted by Ed on Wed, Nov 14, 2012, at 5:33 PM
  • any links ed/

    -- Posted by president obama on Wed, Nov 14, 2012, at 7:12 PM
  • Ed

    You did specifically speak about Nebraska when you referred to a poll of McCook businesses. I presented data that shows we have indeed benefitted from programs administered by the State using ARRA funds, regardless of what the business community has to say.

    Your last post which includes quotes from Investor Daily is deceiving at best. Debt attributable to each President should relate to the spending of that President during his term in office, along with the legislation passed under that president which has in the past or continues to account for a portion of our debt.

    The following link contains three separate analysis (Sept. 2012) of how we arrived at our current debt level, all using data from the Congressional Budget Office. All these analyses tell the same story in one key respect, however. The primary drivers of the debt predate Barack Obama. The post-9/11 wars and security build-up, the Bush tax cuts, and the 2001 and 2008 recessions simply began before Obama became president. You can blame him for extending the Bush tax cuts till 2012, or for the stimulus (though the stimulus would never have happened without the 2008 financial crisis), but the structural of deterioration came in the Bush years.

    By themselves, in fact, the Bush tax cuts and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will account for almost half of the $20 trillion in debt that, under current policies, the nation will owe by 2019. The stimulus law and financial rescues will account for less than 10 percent of the debt at that time.

    -- Posted by Geezer on Wed, Nov 14, 2012, at 9:43 PM
  • Geezer- Do you know who funded all those programs you mention? The Taxpayer. You mention 50% and 10%, by my math thats 60%, so where is the other 40% coming from? Is that Bush's fault as well?

    Are you sure this guy (where you got your retort info) isn't biased in his reporting? Keep drinking the Kool-aid and keep your check book at hand, because higher taxes are coming.

    Ezra Klein is a columnist at the Washington Post, as well as a contributor to MSNBC. His work focuses on domestic and economic policymaking, as well as the political system that's constantly screwing it up. He's appeared on The Rachel Maddow Show, Charlie Rose, Real Time with Bill Maher, The McLaughlin Report, the Colbert Report, and many more. He really likes graphs.

    -- Posted by Ed on Wed, Nov 14, 2012, at 11:44 PM
  • Ed

    Apparently you didn't take a good look at the article by Ezra Klein. Each one of the analysis mentioned by Ezra in his article included a link to that specific full length article. The link is in bold and is located at the beginning of the paragraph associated with his comments for each analysis. In case you still can't find them, here they are.

    You should try to base your comments on the pros and cons and provide rebuttals to substantiate your opinions. Saying everyone who doesn't agree with your political views are drinking the Kool-aid just highlights your inability to substantiate your own point of view.

    Can we try to discuss the issues without interjecting hyperbole into the discussion?

    -- Posted by Geezer on Thu, Nov 15, 2012, at 7:45 AM
  • Hyperbole? Read your own comments. I read the whole article. I am having so much fun with your retorts because you just don't get it. I am not talking as a Republican or Democrat (althought it is very evident where you come from)I am coming from an American taxpayer point of view and if you really believe that higher taxes are not coming then yes I believe you have drank the Kool-aid of this administration. Please go and ask (as I mentioned before)all of the business owners on main street Mccook if they feel like they will be better off business wise and profit wise under this administration. Just do it and see what they say (because they are the real American business owners). See if they agree with what you say. .

    -- Posted by Ed on Thu, Nov 15, 2012, at 10:51 PM
  • Ed

    Your concerns over Federal Tax Policy and future tax hikes are valid. I am also concerned with this issue, just from a different perspective.

    The fact of the matter is that all of the States have needed a helping hand due to the economic downturn from the recession. The participation in the ARRA by the States bears this out. If they didn't need the Federal Funds to cover loss of State tax revenue why did they participate in the program? Why did the Federal Government have to step in and provide $1.26 billion to shore up State administered programs in Nebraska? Why is Nebraska receiving the highest percentage of return on paid in Federal Revenue through the use of Federal Welfare Grants, higher than any other state for years 2009-2010?

    It is called Fiscal Stabilization, and has been instrumental in stabilizing Nebraskas Economy during this economic downturn. If these programs had not been available, the local businesses would have been suffering a far greater loss of revenue - as there would be far less individual discretionary spending available to support these businesses. By helping to moderate the economy, the State has been able to continue the collection of State Tax Revenue. The recent tax cuts at the State level should indicate that the economic conditions within the state are stable enough to allow this flexibility in the administration of State Tax Collection. If the Governor is correct in his analysis, the additional tax savings should spur additional economic growth, as again more individual and corporate discretionary spending becomes available to support the business community.

    This may not be a perfect recovery plan, but it is helping to keep the water in the boiler hot until the steam can build up enough pressure to power the economic engine, allowing the train to leave the station under its own power.

    -- Posted by Geezer on Sat, Nov 17, 2012, at 1:49 PM
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