Whose bubble is going to burst?

In the next few weeks, the broadcast television networks will firm up their fall schedules, hoping to find the next big hit -- or, failing that, at least one or two minor successes that will propel their ad sales on an upward trend. Many shows that are currently on the air will not see another season; such is the nature of the industry.

Right now, only a handful of programs are safe from cancelation. ABC, for example, has already ordered new seasons for about a dozen of their most popular (and/or most profitable) series for next year, but the rest sit in a kind of limbo referred to as "the bubble."

College basketball fans know of "the bubble." It's the term for those teams that are awaiting their fate from the committee -- will they make it to the Big Dance this year, or not?

It has a startlingly similar meaning in the TV business. This year sees a rather large number of shows on TV's "bubble," in large part because the broadcast networks are still smarting from last year's strike-induced work stoppage, which did heavy damage to new program development. The regularly-scheduled development season was able to start on time this go-round, but with an economy in turmoil, the networks are taking steps to save where they can, and that may hold good or bad news for some of the -- for lack of a better word -- "bubbliest" offerings. So who will move on to fall, and who gets popped (and are there any coin flips out there)? Here are my best guesses:

NBC: The network that is ceding five hours a week to a Jay Leno show that still doesn't have a format (but if it isn't a carbon copy of Leno's "Tonight," it'll likely be close) has an almost-certain fall returnee in the recently-launched cop drama "Southland." It's done well in the last primetime hour on Thursday nights, but is it a show that can be as successful one hour earlier? I think it can; the 9/8 Central hour is a lot more hospitable to programs that cater to adults than it used to be. "Southland:" back this fall.

ABC: This network has spent the past five seasons looking for its Next Big Thing, after delivering three massive hits during the 2004-2005 season - "Lost," "Desperate Housewives" and "Grey's Anatomy." Along the way, they've had a number of promising series come and go ("Pushing Daisies" and "Eli Stone" are two that come to my mind), and there are a few more this year, such as off-beat crime procedurals "Castle" and "The Unusuals." (Of the two, "Castle" has easily had the better ratings, which translates to better odds for survival.) The one ABC bubble show that I'm rooting for, though, is "Better Off Ted," a work-place comedy that, for me, has simply become funnier week after week. But the ratings are nothing to smile about. Another new ABC sitcom (and a rather unfunny one at that), "Surviving Suburbia," is drawing significantly more viewers, and likely has a better shot at seeing a renewal. And that's a shame -- but the TV business is ratings-based, and "Ted" just doesn't have the numbers. "Better Off Ted:" popped.

CBS: This network is in the strongest shape going into next fall. They have the number one new show ("The Mentalist"), the top comedy ("Two and a Half Men") and the top drama ("CSI"), as well as the deepest schedule of any of the broadcasters. This doesn't mean they are immune to the economic problems the others are experiencing. Indeed, CBS is reportedly considering dropping either (or even possibly both) hour-long dramas "Without A Trace" and "Cold Case." Both shows are still strong performers, but the rumor mill has buzzed for the past few weeks that the network is trying to cut costs, and that these programs could be on their way out. I'm of the mindset that CBS won't end them both, but as to which one survives, that will likely be decided after some price-haggling over the license fees. "Without A Trace"/"Cold Case:" coin flip.

FOX: This network is always a tale of two seasons; a mediocre fall, then a huge spring, thanks to "American Idol." This year is no different. FOX is looking to break that cycle, but even with year-round successes like "House" and "Bones," they just haven't been able to do it. FOX made some bolder moves this year, and have seen moderate improvements, thanks to their Sunday night animated comedies like "Family Guy," and the sci-fi thriller "Fringe." This spring, FOX launched "Dollhouse," which marked the highly-anticipated return of "Buffy the Vampire Slayer" creator Joss Whedon to television.

Unfortunately, the show hasn't gained much, if any, traction on Friday nights, and poor reviews for the first few episodes may have killed whatever buzz the show had before it hit the air.

Reports say that the quality tide is turning for the show, and the simple fact that the normally fast-on-the-trigger FOX hasn't killed it yet may be the best news anyone who enjoys the show could hope to hear, and I think that bodes well for the program's immediate future. "Dollhouse:" back this fall (but it'll be close).