Leno's post- 'Tonight Show' move a sign of (prime) times to come?

A few days ago, NBC announced -- with some fanfare -- that long-time "Tonight Show" host Jay Leno, who was rumored to be on his way to another network, would not only be staying at NBC, but in fact, be given a new prime time series. Leno's new show will launch this upcoming fall, and while there hasn't been any hint of what it will be, one thing is known: It will run at 9 p.m. every night, five nights a week.

It's a safe bet that it'll stick fairly close to what made him a star, and more importantly, what made his version of the venerable late-night talk show a major cash cow for NBC.

Perhaps buried by that news, though, is a statement made by Jeff Zucker, the chairman of NBC Universal, and one of Leno's bosses. Zucker, speaking to an industry group, gave his own prognosis for the future of broadcast television, and it was decidedly downbeat. He said, in effect, that the business model of network TV was broken, and there will have to be some major shifts in the way that the television business works if it is to survive.

Zucker's words have been criticized in some corners as mere sour grapes by the head of a company that has seen significant financial reverses in the last few years, as well as a shocking downturn in programming success. Others have applauded his comments, themselves concerned about the spiraling costs of producing scripted television.

The concern about the price of making sitcoms and dramas is not new. What has changed is the risk-versus-reward ratio. The available television audience has never been higher, but with the expansion of cable and satellite program options, the hefty chunk of the audience pie that advertisers want to reach and are willing to pay for, one that the broadcast networks have always divided, continues to get slimmer. Granted, the major over-the-air broadcasters -- ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox -- will split that still-largest piece for the foreseeable future, but there's no way to sugar-coat it: That piece is irretrievably shrinking. And when you consider that a single season of a prime time hour-long series can cost upwards of one hundred million dollars over the course of the standard 22 episodes, it's easy to understand why a network president would say that the system needs an overhaul.

The network heads will likely take a step back, look at the market, and make a feast-or-famine choice; one that will not just affect them for a year, but perhaps for decades to come. The members of this industry will then, independently, do one of two things -- they'll take bigger risks, or they'll stick to the tried-and-true.

NBC appears to be aiming for tried-and-true at this moment. Jay Leno is, for lack of a better metaphor, a golden goose. His "Tonight Show" stint has made NBC billions of dollars -- yep, that's billions with a "b." Giving him five hours of prime time air a week means five hours that the programming department won't have to worry about, and neither will the bean-counters; his show will be cheap to produce, even if he gets a raise. The potential audience is unlikely to make it a blockbuster hit, but NBC has precious few of those on hand as it is, and again, the price tag of producing the show -- as well as keeping the goodwill of Leno's loyal fanbase, one that advertisers want to reach -- means that it doesn't have to draw "CSI" numbers to make it worthwhile for NBC.

But what effect will this cost-conscious move have on NBC's scripted series development? Some of the network's loudest critics believe that this shrinking of the schedule will, indeed, cast a chill over it, and drive potential hits (and hitmakers) away for good.

It will be interesting to see what develops with NBC's strategy this fall, no matter what, and if any of the other networks decide to follow suit, or go in the opposite direction.

One thing's for sure: Jay Leno will still be employed this fall. Whether anyone else at NBC will be, that's a different story.