Emmys: Who oughta win

It's an inexact thing, picking these. It's not even like comparing apples to oranges; in most cases, it's much more akin to comparing apples to staplers. (For example, while an apple could double as a paperweight, would you want to drink a tall glass of stapler juice?

I doubt if I'd even be able to fit one into my Jack LaLanne Power Juicer ... or could I? Hmmm ... ) But 'tis the season for wild guesses, so I'll give it a whirl.

In my own defense, I did do my homework -- which, oddly enough, was watching TV -- caught as many episodes of each nominee that I could get my eyes on, took a few notes, and now offer my best guesses to you.

NBC's "30 Rock" is my pick for Comedy Series. Of all the nominees, I think its the one that really has the mechanics of comedy down cold. It's quick, bright, and seems to understand how to be in on the joke without jabbing its elbow into the viewer's ribs to sell its punchlines.

As for the other nominees, the dark horse pick is NBC's "The Office," a show that I admit has grown on me. I like the performances, and the writing's funny, but there's just this smugness to all of it, something I also find hanging over fellow nominated comedies "Curb Your Enthusiasm" and "Entourage," both from HBO. And the less said about CBS's "Two And A Half Men" getting nominated over any number over other, more deserving comedies, the better.

When it comes to picking Outstanding Drama Series, there's the show I want to win (ABC's "Lost," of course) then there's the show that I think will win (AMC's "Mad Men") and then there's the show that I'm not sure even belongs on the list, but should not be counted out (ABC's "Boston Legal"). "Mad Men," with its stylish dramatization of people manipulating their way through the 'Sixties advertising game, was an unquestionable critical success, and is indeed my pick to win the Emmy, but a "Lost" win wouldn't be an upset in my book -- no series on television had a better (or more purely entertaining) year, period.

The nomination for "Boston Legal" puzzled many (even me, and I like the show), probably because it was, as usual, jarring in its storytelling, but any show that dares to take its lead characters to face off (and rail against) the U.S. Supreme Court is also daring the Emmy voters not to put it on the ballot. If there's a significant split in the voting, "Boston Legal" could pull off one of the most shocking wins in Emmy history.

Among the other nominees -- FX's "Damages" and Showtime's "Dexter" -- were both darkly suspenseful and sometimes just flat-out dark, and also quite good, but I think neither one has the kind of buzz that brings home the Emmy, while the nomination for Fox's "House" is mostly due to a very strong season finale after an uneven year.

In the lead comedy actor category, Alec Baldwin deserves the trophy for his performance as Jack Donaghy on "30 Rock." While I may find some of the actor's recent public comments a bit out-there, he's brilliant in this role. If anyone else is going to hoist the trophy, it should be Steve Carell, who plays boorish boss Michael Scott on "The Office." He's a genuine star now, but I admire the way he has kept the fundamentals of the character sound, while continuing to explore the space inside the boundaries. I don't think he'll squeak past Baldwin, but he stands the best chance to play spoiler.

Lead actress, comedy is a much tighter race. Julia Louis-Dreyfus in CBS's "The New Adventures Of Old Christine" is my pick; very few actors are willing to straddle that line between playing someone who is alternately likable and pitiable, even fewer do it well. Louis-Dreyfus' work here is both bracing and boldly funny, and that, I think, will win her the prize. But Christina Applegate's performance on ABC's "Samantha Who?" was delightfully revelatory, and a far cry from her teen years as dimwitted sexpot Kelly Bundy on FOX's "Married With Children." I would not be unhappy, or shocked, to see her win.

Supporting actor in a comedy series is an easy pick for me: Neil Patrick Harris from CBS's "How I Met Your Mother" should win in a landslide. His Barney is a surprisingly textured Lothario; a sharp-dressed and slick ladykiller on the outside, but a soft-hearted, ready-to-fall-in-love romantic just beneath the surface.

Supporting actress in a comedy is much more difficult to pick; there isn't one dud on the list. But since I have to decide, I'm going to go with Jean Smart of "Samantha Who?" Smart, who's been a dazzlingly nimble presence on TV and film since "Designing Women," and a few years ago was absolutely phenomenal as a conspiracy-addled First Lady on "24," has found another great role to play in Regina, the acid-witted mother of the amnesiac title character.

For lead actor in a drama, my pick should be Jon Hamm, whose role as Don Draper on "Mad Men" made him a breakout critical favorite, and won him the Golden Globe earlier this year, along with a raft of other plaudits. But he has the unfortunate task of facing "Boston Legal" star James Spader, who is three-for-three in previous Emmy races, and has been nominated again for his award-baiting performance in the show's Supreme Court episode. So I'm picking Spader to win, because it seems that Emmy voters just can't resist him and his impassioned speechifying.

There's a wealth of talent to pick from in the lead drama actress race, but my choice is Sally Field of ABC's "Brothers & Sisters," who would also be a repeat winner from last year. Field's shaken-but-still-stable matriarch is often the most consistent character on the drama, and she shows a deft touch with the light comic scenes and the darker, more dramatic material that she is given to play. A definite dark horse in the contest is Glenn Close as the ferocious-yet-brittle Patty Hewes from FX's "Damages."

My pick for supporting actor in a drama is Michael Emerson from "Lost," who has created, in his performance as Ben Linus, a villain in such subtle shades of grey that you occasionally find yourself sympathizing with him when he suffers tragedy, or rooting for him when he takes action. I believe that Ben will likely go down in the pantheon of TV as one of the great characters, and that Emerson will be rewarded this year with an overdue Emmy.

In the drama supporting actress category, my choice is Chandra Wilson, who has been passed over too many times for her role on ABC's "Grey's Anatomy." From the first episode, her work as Miranda Bailey was a breath of fresh air, and even as the show began to slump and drag last season, she was still at the top of her game. It's long past time she receive the recognition she has so richly deserved.

You can check off all the ones I got wrong when the Emmy Awards air Sunday, Sept. 21 on ABC.

Meanwhile, I've got a juicing experiment to try, so I'm off to see where I tucked that little Swingline stapler of mine. (If I'm remembering right, I parked it next to my safety goggles. See, that's just smart.)