Class A and B High School Basketball State Tournament Forecasts

"Big Elliott" goes for the block. *Photo courtesy of Journal-Star

Most of you out there interested in College Basketball are aware of the Sagarin Ratings. These are ratings based on a complex mathematical set of equations that are based on things such as strength of schedule, scoring (defensive and offensive) and many other factors. I had often wished I were bright enough to formulate one for high school hoops, but a man named Ken Massey has solved that problem for me.

So.........based on his calculations, and just a smidgen of input from 1000 Yard Guy, here is what the State Tournament would look like at this point in time if it were indeed upon us. Takes a ton of time to figure this out, but this is what transpired after hours of work.

CLASS A District Predictions:

District 1

Papillion 59-47 Omaha NW

Semis:O. Central 69-47 Papillion

Millard North 63-61 O. Burke

Finals: Central runs past Millard North 65-53 for the Title

District 2

Norfolk 72-49 Lincoln NE and Omaha South 63-58 Lincoln SW

Norfolk then gets a 9 point title win over South, 68-59

District 3

Lincoln SE bombs Omaha North by 24, and Bellevue East beats Millard South 53-47

Southeast then gets to Lincoln by handling Bell East 55-47.

District 4

Links send Lincoln East packing 62-41 and Bell West sends Kearney home, 61-53.

Lincoln High wins by a 63-53 count over the Thunderbirds for the crown.

District 5

Bryan's Bears pound North Platte 64-48 and Lin. North Star get a 53-52 win over Elkhorn. Bears then pound North Star 64-48 and are headed West for the Dance.

District 6

Prep has little more than more than a practice by trouncing GI 70-42, and Papio South gets a 10 pointer over Westside, 63-53

Creighton Prep advances with a 66-56 win over PLS.

District 7

Bunnies beat Millard West 63-52 and Fremont handles Columbus 49-32. Benson then edges Fremont in a thriller 56-53 for all the marbles, but the Tigers grab the WILD CARD.

STATE TOURNAMENT:

(1) Omaha Central 58-49 Fremont (8)

(5) Omaha Bryan 58-57 Lincoln High (4) 2 overtimes

(3) Creighton Prep 61-58 Lincoln SE

(2) Norfolk 67-62 Omaha Benson

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Omaha Central 63-60 Omaha Bryan

Creighton Prep 62-60 Norfolk

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CREIGHTON PREP's Caleb Steffensmeier calmly sinks two of THREE free throws with :04 seconds remaining after a Central player is whistled for a foul on a 3-point attempt with his team leading 61-60. Prep wins the Class A crown, 62-61.

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CLASS B District Predictions:

District 1

Omaha Skutt edges South Sioux City 62-61 for the crown.

District 2

Ralston beats Gross 59-56 for the marbles after slipping past Gretna 59-56 in the Semis.

District 3

It's Beatrice in a 51-50 thriller over Pius. The Orangeman and the Thunderbolts each post double digit wins over Norris and Waverly respectively in the Semi Finals.

District 4

ALL close games here. York beats Crete 54-47 in the bunny contest. Aurora rallies to beat York 61-56 and Seward nips a stubborn Schuyler squad 45-42. Huskies nab the title by beating Seward in double OT, 62-61.

District 5

Adams Central whips Lex by a 62-45 margin, then holds off McCook 49-45 for the right to head to Lincoln.

District 6

Close games make this baby interesting also, but the Red Raiders earn a return trip to State by beating Scottsbluff 58-54.

Pius X and South Sioux City grab the Wild Cards.

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State Tournament

(1) Omaha Skutt 63-44 Sidney (8)

(5) S. S. City 59-58 Beatrice (4) Overtime

(6) Ralston 55-54 Lincoln Pius (3)

(2) Adams Central 66-58 Aurora (7)

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Omaha Skutt 62-61 South Sioux City

Ralston 77-60 Hastings Adams Central

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Omaha Skutt beats Ralston 57-55 for the Title

Key thing to keep in mind is that this Massey system does not take the "upset" factor into consideration. All the fun would disappear then, right?