Beatrice All-Stater, Trevor Menke drives to the hoop on a Scottsbluff defender. *Photo courtesy of Journal-Star.
Most of you out there interested in College Basketball are aware of the Sagarin Ratings. These are ratings based on a complex mathematical set of equations that based on things such as strength of schedule, scoring (defensive and offensive) and many other factors. I had often wished I were bright enough to formulate one for high school hoops, but a man named Ken Massey has solved that problem for me.
So.........based on his calculations, and just a smidgen of input from 1000 Yard Guy, here is what the State Tournament would look like at this point in time if it were indeed upon us. Takes a ton of time to figure this out, but this is what transpired after hours of work.
After all these calculations, I can't see why there is any logical reason to hold off on these.........The Green light Is ON, so just how DID "The System" spit it out? Only 2 weeks of regular season left and it's the right time, right place to test the logic.
Ready or not, right or wrong, here it is:
CLASS C-1 Subs
*District 1: Holy Cow, how tough can district be? Humboldt-TRS is the only team to slip in the past two weeks. I'll take Lincoln Christian to edge Syracuse 58-55, then get a "W" over Falls City 58-53 in the Finals. LIN. CHRISTIAN.
*District 2: Bennington's Badgers to edge Boys Town 55-53 for the crown. BENNINGTON.
*District 3: You knew it, a Neumann/Wahoo Final. Wahoo Neumann has the last word 51-46....WAHOO NEUMANN.
*District 4: Wayne beats Wisner-Pilger 53-44, then edges Tekamah-Herman 55-53 for the title......WAYNE.
*District 5: Centennial over David City 50-47....CENTENNIAL.
*District 6: Surprise...St Cecilia blasts Wilber-Clatonia 53-33...HAST. ST. CECILIA
*District 7: All Columbus final and it's Lakeview 46-41 over Scotus.. LAKEVIEW
*District 8: GICC sends St. Paul home with a 59-45 win....GICC.
*District 9: Norfolk Catholic over Pierce 52-29..NORFOLK CATHOLIC
*District 10: Ord gets Ainsworth 51-48....ORD
*District 11: Minden downs stubborn Kearney Catholic 54-51......MINDEN
*District 12: Chadron all over Kimball 64-35.......CHADRON
Lincoln Christian 63-53 Bennington
Bishop Neumann 51-46 Wayne
St. Cecilia 57-30 Centennial
GICC 50-51 Lakeview
Norfolk Catholic 62-42 Ord
Chadron 53-42 Minden
Wild cards go to Falls City and Columbus Lakeview.
Not much change from 2 weeks back on the State Tournament Picture:
(1) Chadron 52-40 Wahoo Neumann (8)
(5) Columbus Lakeview 45-44 Falls City (4)
(3) Hastings St. Cecilia 62-49 Lincoln Christian (6)
(2) GICC 55-51 Norfolk Catholic (7)
Chadron 47-39 Columbus Lakeview
Hastings St. Cecilia 51-43 GICC
Hastings St. Cecilia 49-41 Chadron HASTINGS ST. CECILA
Comments: Looks like the Bluehawks get their Three Peat. Depending on what happens this Friday with GICC/St. Cecilia, things could change...or not if the "Hawks win again. Crusaders/Norfolk Catholic Semi possibility could create a game to remember. Chadron looks like they could get a friendly bracket draw at State.
We'll go straight to District Finals here:
Fremont Bergan whips West Point CC 70-54
Nebraska City Lourdes over Elmwood-Murdock 49-41
Twin River edges Sutton 41-40
Hartington CC knocks off Burwell 56-51
Axtell gets Ravenna 58-57 in double OT
Bayard beats Dundy Co. 63-62 in OT
C-2 State Tournament
(1) Hartington CC 54-47 N C Lourdes (8)
(5) Fremont Bergan 64-47 Burwell (4)
(3) Ravenna 65-45 Bayard (6)
(2) Axtell 57-46 Twin River (7)
Fremont Bergan 63-52 Hartington CC
Axtell 55-53 Ravenna
Fremont Bergan 56-53 Axtell......FREMONT BERGAN
This writer sure likes Archbishop Bergan's chances. I think Chris Paulsen has these Knights playing at the top of their game and their schedule is so very strong. Can't ever count Ravenna out, but I like Axtell, but will be able to tell a ton more when I'm on the PA for their game against Ewing Saturday at the Events Center. Nothing wrong with Burwell, but Bergan may be a cut above their capabilities.
East Butler over Silver Lake 56-53, Freeman beats Shelby by 10, Howells gets Emerson-Hubbard 54-48 after beating St. Frans 55-50 prior. Randolph beats North Central, Overton gets past Loup City 51-43 and Eustis-Farnum blasts Creek Valley 61-45. Wauneta-Palisade and St. Frans grab the Wild Card slots.
(1) Freeman 54-27 Randolph (8)
(5) Howells 56-55 Humphrey St. Francis (4)
(3) Eustis-Farnum 53-50 Wauneta-Palisade (6)
(2) Overton 59-44 East Butler (7)
Freeman 55-38 Howells
Overton 58-53 Eustis-Farnum
Freeman 55-44 Overton..........FREEMAN
Certainly appears that Freeman may be the strongest favorite in any class this season. The "system" seems to think nobody will even come within 10 at State. Not that I have anything against Howells, but how they can beat Humphrey St. Francis TWO more times this season is beyond my thinking. That, my friends, will take some doing, but it is probably a moot point because Freeman can probably beat either one.
District Finals: Sterling beats Hampton 49-43, GI Heartland Lutheran ousts Dodge 58-51, Newcastle gets the win over St. Marys 43-42, Ewing pummels Pleasanton 62-45, Hayes Center beats SEM 62-56 and Hay Springs beats Arthur by 20. The Wild cards go to the Hampton Hawks and SEM with Cody-Kilgore and Giltner just missing.
D-2 State Tournament:
(1) Ewing 68-45 Newcastle (8)
(4) Sterling 58-55 SEM (5)
(6) Hayes Center 53-44 Hampton (3)
(2) Hay Springs 76-58 Grand Island Heartland Lutheran
Ewing 57-50 Sterling (Pay back!!!)
Hat Springs 63-62 Hayes Center
Ewing 65-62 Hay Springs...........EWING
The Ewing Tigers grab one last State Title! Two weeks ago, this system picked Hay Springs to nab the Title, but now it has done a reversal. One game that I may have a little bit of doubt about is Hayes Center beating Hampton. The jury is still out on that one as far as I would be concerned. A Sterling/Ewing rematch.....sweet. I just have to insert how jubilant I would be if Heartland Lutheran made it to the D-2 Dance! I love this program and in only 6 short season this bunch has come a long ways, baby.
I'll be back after Districts and we shall check the validity of the Massey System for High School Basketball. The magic season for HOOPS is upon us