Week 20 General Election Projection

Pennslyvania drops back down to the Toss-Up status. Though Clinton's lead has maintained between 4 and 5 in most polls her lead is still under the threshold to stay out of the toss-ups.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/BWlwA

Toss-Up States

Missouri

Five new polls this week and Trump's lead has not changed. His lead is 4.81 in 37 polls 43.16-38.35. Trump had leads in 4 of the 5 polls with his largest being 12, one 6 point lead, and two at 5.

Pennsylvania

Clinton currently leads the state by 4.66 in 67 polls 41.46-40.41.

Florida

Seven new polls this week. Clinton's lead grew to 1.62 in 82 polls 43.8-42.18. Clinton lead in 6 of the 7 polls (with the other being a tie, with leads of 3, 3, 5, 1, 6, and 3. If Trump has any hope of winning Florida this was a horrible week for him in the state. Even worse news is that reports for new registrations came out. Democrats had over 600,000 while Republicans only mustered 60,00. In years past, in Florida, Republicans typically won by large margins.

Arizona

Four new polls this week. Trump's lead grew to 1.48 in 42 polls 41.43-39.95. Even though Trump's lead in Arizona grew this week, Clinton lead the final two. Because Trump's two leads were 7 and 6 and Clinton's leads were 2 and 1, this is why his lead grew. We will have to watch Arizona to see if Clinton's recent polling success continues are if Trump gets a good poll.

Nevada

Seven new polls this week. Clinton now has the lead by 0.51 in 45 polls 41.09-40.58.Clinton lead in six of the seven polls this week with the 7thth poll being a tie. This is the primary reason Clinton now has the lead in the state.

Iowa

Five new polls this week. Clinton's lead grew to 0.49 in 45 polls 40.02-39.53. Iowa has been all over the map this election cycle. At one point it seemed certain that Clinton would win the state but that changed in late August when Clinton had a large surge in the country but the state was flat for her. Eventually Trump took a fairly decent lead. Now the tide has turned again. Clinton lead in 3 of the last five polls all three being the last three taken including a 10 point lead.

North Carolina

Seven polls this week. Clinton's lead grew to 0.4. Her lead in 69 polls is now at 42.46-42.06. Clinton lead in six of the seven polls. The talking heads have been saying that if Trump loses Florida he will not win the election. I see it differently. In 2012 Romney won North Carolina by a comfortable margin. If Trump loses the state this year he will not win the election.

Ohio

Amazingly there were 12 polls this week in Ohio, including three in one day. Clinton lead shrinks to 0.4 in 69 polls 42.46-42.06. Clinton lead in eight of the 12 polls. All those leads were very small, 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, and 4. Trump's leads were 4, 11, and 2. That 11 point lead was the main reason Clinton's lead shrunk this week.

Northeast

SAFE

Maryland - Clinton lead down to 52.63-28.74 (lead was 24.2 down to 23.89)
New York - Clinton lead down to 50.5-31.98 (lead was 18.55 down to 18.52)
Massachusetts - Clinton lead down to 51.39-28.96(lead was 22.78 down to 22.43)
Vermont - Clinton lead up to 50.29-22.53 (lead was 26.93 up to 27.76)
DC - Clinton lead up to 58.25-19.75 (lead was 35.3 up to 38.3)
Maine D-1 - Clinton unchanged at 47.71-30.71 (lead remains at 17)
Rhode Island - Clinton lead up to 45.93-30.07 (lead was 14.77 up to 15.86)

LIKELY

Delaware - Clinton lead up to 42.48-30.67 (lead was 11.67 up to 11.81)
New Jersey - Clinton lead up to 45.81-34.63 (lead was 11 up to 12.25)
Connecticut - Clinton lead up to 46.25-34 (lead was 11.72 up to 11.72)
New Hampshire - Clinton lead up to 44.22-37.28 (lead was 6.3 up to 6.94)
LEAN

Maine D-2 - Trump lead down to 41.67-37.44 (lead was 4.63 down to 4.23)

Southeast

SAFE

Louisiana - Trump lead up to 50.76-32.72 (lead was 17.96 up to 18.04)
Alabama - Trump lead down to 55.26-30.52 (lead was 25 down to 24.74)
West Virginia - Trump lead up to 49.88-32.35 (lead was 17.08 up to 17.53)
Mississippi - Trump lead down to 51.83-32.35 (lead was 19.9 down to 19.48)
Tennessee - Trump down to 47.4-31.6 (lead was 16.09 down to 15.08)

LIKELY

Georgia - Trump lead up 44.73-39.23 (Trump was at 5.37 up to 5.5)
Arkansas - Trump lead up to 47.38-35.42 (lead was 11.81 up to 11.96)
Kentucky - Trump lead up to 45.92-34.96 (lead was 10.72 up to 10.96)
Virginia - Clinton lead down to 43.71-36.73 (lead was 7.28 down to 6.98)
South Carolina - Trump lead up to 45.83-37.83 (lead was 7.93 up to 8)

MIDWEST

SAFE

Illinois - Clinton lead up to 47.14-32.09 (lead was 14.84 up to 15.05)

LIKELY

Indiana - Trump lead down to 44.94-35.68 (lead was 9.73 down to 9.26)
Michigan - Clinton lead up to 42.28-36.33 (lead was 5.54 up to 5.95)
Wisconsin - Clinton lead down to 43.87-36.13 (lead was 7.78 down to 7.74)
Minnesota - Clinton lead down to 42.04-33.77 (lead was 8.3 down to 8.27)

PLAINS

SAFE

Oklahoma - Trump lead down to 49.58-29.92 (lead was 19.71 down to 19.66)
North Dakota - Trump lead up to 48.47-26.07 (lead was 21.25 up to 22.4)
Nebraska D-1- Trump unchanged at 53-29 (up 24)
Nebraska D-3- Trump unchanged at 65-20 (up 45)

LIKELY

Texas - Trump lead down to 44.47-34.17 (lead was 10.6 down to 10.3)
South Dakota - Trump lead down to 41.56-32.56 (lead was 9.15 down to 9)
Nebraska D-2- Trump unchanged at 49-40 (up 9)
Kansas - Trump lead up to 42.82-37.32 (lead was 5.12 up to 5.5)

MOUNTAINS

SAFE

Wyoming - Trump lead up to 50.93-22.5 (lead was 27 up to 28.43)
Idaho - Trump lead down to 48.08-27.16 (lead was 21.14 down to 20.92)

LIKELY

Montana - Trump lead up to 44.65-34.05 (lead was 9.71 up to 10.6)
New Mexico - Clinton lead up to 41.09-33.91 (lead was 6.85 up to 7.15)
Utah - Trump lead up to 35.85-28.5 (lead was 10.11 up to 10.35)

LEAN

Colorado - Clinton lead down to 41.71-36.69 (lead was 4.86 up to 4.75)

PACIFIC

SAFE

California - Clinton lead up to 52.93-30.21 (lead was 22.55 up to 22.72)
Hawaii - Clinton lead up to 51-26.31 (lead was 24.45 up to 24.69)

LIKELY

Oregon - Clinton lead up to 44.9-34.17 (lead was 10.24 up to 10.73)
Washington - Clinton lead up to 45.63-32.07 (lead was 13.29 up to 13.56)
Alaska - Trump lead down to 40.05-32.16 (lead was 8.5 down to 7.89)

WITH JOHNSON ONLY POLLS

http://www.270towin.com/maps/y6GVv

Something worth noting is the state of Utah. Johnson is no longer in third place. Evan McMullen has now taken over third and he is slowly creeping up on both Clinton and Trump. It is VERY possible at this point that McMullen could win the state. The last three polls has shown him in the 20s ... So are Clinton and Trump.

Also worth noting, earlier in the cycle the two way race and the three way race were considerable divergent. There was a lot of differences between the two. Now they are almost identical. What this means is that people are settling between Clinton and Trump and Johnson's support has collapsed. Of course, his gaffe after gaffe in a three week period did not help at all, from not knowing what Aleppo is, to not being able to name a single foreign leader, and other mistakes.

IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY

The final debate is tomorrow and I finally found the time to look at what the map might look like if the election were held today.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/oJAPr