Week 12 General Election Projection

A couple of updates going into this week. I have moved Virginia and Pennsylvania from the toss up states as Clinton has large enough leads at this point for them to be solidly in her corner. This could change, but right now they are no longer toss ups. Those states moving into the toss ups are Missouri and South Carolina. South Carolina is still iffy as a toss up state with just a few polls.

Mississippi goes from a lean Trump to likely Trump with the release of a new poll.

TOSS-UPS

Missouri

There have been 8 polls performed in the state. Trump leads by 4; 43.5-39.5. The state is trending towards Trump. He has led in two of the last three polls.

Florida

Another three new polls came out this week and has given Clinton a slightly larger lead of 3.4; 44.7-41.3 (33 polls). Florida is trending for Clinton. She has led every poll in August and every poll since the Democratic Convention.

South Carolina

There have been three polls in the state but they have all been close. Trump leads by 3.33; 44-40.67. Because there are only three polls in the state there is no real trend at this time.

Ohio

In a bit of a surprise no new polls came out in Ohio this week. So in the 23 polls conducted Clinton still has a 2.44 lead; 42.22-39.78. Because the polling has been so sporadic there is no real trend.

Iowa

Iowa continues to tighten up in the overall average despite the lone poll last week in the state having Clinton up 41. However, in the 15 polls Clinton leads by 2.07; 40.8-38.73. The last four polls in the state show no discernable trend. Two had Trump leading, two had Clinton leading. We may not truly know how this state will go until the night of the election.

North Carolina

No new polls this week. Clinton maintains her lead in the 22 polls by 1.36; 43.27-41.91. The state is slightly trending towards Clinton who has had leads in 4 of the last 5 polls.

Georgia

Two new polls were released this week running the total to 15. Trump still has a lead but it has shrunk to 0.93; 43.13-42.2. The state still is trending towards Clinton. In the last three polls Clinton has leads of 4 in two and tied in one.

Arizona

No new polls this week. Trump maintains his very slim lead of 0.9; 42.3-41.4 in 10 polls. Arizona is beginning to trend towards Clinton. At the end of July there was a poll out that had Trump up by 8. Since then two new polls have been released one with Trump up 2 the other with Clinton up 3.

Nevada

One poll was released this week bringing the total to nine. Trump's lead shrunk to 0.34; 42.78-42.44. Clinton has led in four of the last five polls so the trend is definitely in her favor but the leads have been mostly in the 1-2 point area.

NO POLLS

TRUMP

Nebraska D-1
Nebraska D-2
Nebraska D-3
South Dakota
North Dakota
Wyoming

CLINTON

DC
Hawaii
Rhoda Island

Northeast

SAFE

Maryland - Clinton leads 62.33-27.67
New York - Clinton leads 53.5-33.13
Massachusetts - Clinton leads 55.33-29.33
Vermont - Clinton leads 39-20.5
Maine D-1 - Clinton leads 48-33

LIKELY

Delaware - Clinton leads 42-32
New Jersey - Clinton leads 47.13-34.38
Connecticut - Clinton leads 44.5-38
New Hampshire - Clinton leads 44.6-38.56
Pennsylvania - Clinton leads 44.91-38.73

LEAN

Maine D-2 - Trump leads by 37-36

Southeast

SAFE

Louisiana - Trump leads 52-36
Alabama - Trumps leads 62.5-32.5
West Virginia - Trump leads 59-27

LIKELY

Arkansas - Trump leads 47-36
Tennessee - Trump leads 45.5-32.5
Kentucky - Trump leads 41.33-29.67
Virginia - Clinton leads 44.06-36.81
Mississippi - Trump leads 49-41

MIDWEST

SAFE

Illinois - Clinton leads 48.5-32

LIKELY

Indiana - Trump leads 46-37.83
Michigan - Clinton leads 43.2-34.67
Wisconsin - Clinton leads 46.19-36.31
Minnesota - Clinton leads 45.5-36.5

PLAINS

SAFE

Oklahoma - Trump leads 50.5-28.5

LIKELY

Texas - Trump leads 43.8-37
Kansas - Trump leads 43.4-36.2

MOUNTAINS

SAFE

Montana - Trump leads 51-30
Idaho - Trump leads 47.33-29

LIKELY

Colorado - Clinton leads 41.6-36
New Mexico - Clinton leads 41-33
Utah - Trump leads 35.88-30.88

PACIFIC

SAFE

California - Clinton leads 52.71-31.86
Washington - Clinton leads 46.67-32.33

LIKELY

Oregon - Clinton leads 43.5-37

IF ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY 8-23

So my weekly projection is for the actual election. I started last week and I will continues is a prediction on if the election were held today, using numbers from 538

IF ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY 8/30

Since I was out of state last week and unable to do my normal post I will instead update my weekly today's election