And Now for Something Completely Different

Week 8 General Election Projection

Posted Friday, July 8, 2016, at 10:19 PM

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Several new polls in different states came out this week and a very clear trend is appearing. Trump is losing ground. In order for him to have a chance of beating Clinton he would at the very least need to pick up Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina and not loose any states.

To this point the trend is clearly in Clinton's corner as she is not only hanging on to her states she is now leading in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and Kansas.

Yes, that Kansas. Only on poll has been performed in the state in this year but it has Clinton leading.

I am going to look at the newest polls in the toss up states and new state polls in general

North Carolina

Last week Clinton and Trump were tied. With the trend shaping out a bit more Clinton now has a 44-42% lead.

Colorado

We final get a new poll for the state this year and it's more bad news for Trump. The last poll in the state was in November and had Trump up by 11. Too much time has passed to be considered and the new out has Clinton up 40-39%

Kansas

There are two polls from Kansas. However, the oldest one was done in February by Fort Hays State which is known for getting both the Republican and Democratic caucuses horribly wrong. The last poll performed by Zogby (which is a GOP leaning pollster) has Clinton up 43-36%. The good or bad news for Trump is that 21% were undecided.

One thing that should help Trump is that the last time Kansas voted for a Democratic candidate was in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson won in his re-election bid.

For this weeks projection I have Clinton beating Trump 374-164 electoral votes. Clinton has 222 safe delegates and 152 leaning delegates. Trump has 142 safe delegates and 22 likely delegates.

538 currently gives Clinton a 77.8% chance to win the election. They also project Clinton to win the delegate race 342-195.3-0.7 against Trump and Johnson.

Real Clear Politics is a little quirky in their analysis of the race. They don't give an edge to either candidate in any of the toss up states. They also consider New York a safe state for Clinton and California only as a likely state for Clinton even though her lead is larger in California.

However, they do have Clinton leading Trump 210-164 delegates with 164 delegates up for grabs in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Maine Congressional District 2.

Comments

View 4 comments

Note: The nature of the Internet makes it impractical for our staff to review every comment. Please note that those who post comments on this website may do so using a screen name, which may or may not reflect a website user's actual name. Readers should be careful not to assign comments to real people who may have names similar to screen names. Refrain from obscenity in your comments, and to keep discussions civil, don't say anything in a way your grandmother would be ashamed to read.

I have a prediction. Trump is going to win in a landslide. I don't trust the polls much. I have had at least 10 survey calls just this week and all I do is hang up on them. I don't have time to waste with those things.

I wonder who actually answers those surveys. Do they have a life, or is this the most exciting moment of their week? I think the polls are highly biased because of the type of person who answers, since many of us just won't be bothered with them. A lot of us rational thinkers exclude ourselves.

I think the Republican turn out for Trump will be "huge" and Democrats will tend to stay home, as even they do not like her.

Time will tell. In any event, it probably will make little difference who we elect as president. The same bureaucrats will run D.C. either way.

-- Posted by JohnGalt1968 on Sat, Jul 9, 2016, at 1:41 PM
You think the polls are highly biased because of the type of person who answers? That's got to be one of the greatest leaps of conclusion I have ever seen.

Maybe you should go back and look at my analysis of the polls during the primaries. They were pretty much spot on for both parties.

Usually when I see or hear a person complaining about alleged "bias" in a poll it is someone who doesn't like the outcomes of the polls.

This is very familiar to 2012 when people were predicting a Romney landslide except that Romney was much closer in the polls.

Not to mention it is way to early for predictions. I am making projections based on the polls. I don't expect the actual outcome to resemble a projection on July 9 before either convention.

-- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Sat, Jul 9, 2016, at 2:45 PM
Is it a leap to think that people who watch TV all day sitting by the phone with all kinds of time on their hands, might have different views than those who think independently, and don't waste their time answering surveys?

-- Posted by JohnGalt1968 on Sun, Jul 10, 2016, at 9:43 AM
If you say so, but I believe that the history of presidential polls pretty much invalidate your argument. The only election they missed was the 2000 election. Even then only one state was missed, Florida.

Though I have a very strong feeling that if the polls were reversed showing a potential Trump route, you wouldn't have a problem at all with them.

"Is it a leap to think that people who watch TV all day sitting by the phone with all kinds of time on their hands, might have different views than those who think independently, and don't waste their time answering surveys?

-- Posted by JohnGalt1968 on Sun, Jul 10, 2016, at 9:43 AM"

You're the one making that leap so the only one that would be able to answer the question is actually you.

-- Posted by MichaelHendricks on Mon, Jul 11, 2016, at 1:59 PM

Respond to this blog

Posting a comment requires free registration:

If you already have an account, follow this link to login
Otherwise, follow this link to register