Indiana Primary

This week is an extremely light week of primaries with Republicans only having the Indiana primary and Democrats having the Indiana primary and the Guam primary on Saturday. There are 57 delegates up for grabs in Indiana. This is a winner take all contest so whoever wins, whether it is by 1 point or 20 gets all of the delegates. There are 92 delegates up for grabs for Democrats in Indiana and 12 in Guam.

There has not been a lot of polling for either side but what we do have shows Donald Trump in the lead over Ted Cruz and John Kasich with an average of 40-33-16. In the last poll Trump was leading Cruz and Kasich 41-32-21.

According to www.fivethirtyeight.com Trump has an 83% to win Indiana. What is surprising is that up until April 30th Cruz had a 65% chance to win Indiana. His support here has completely collapsed. So it will be an interesting race to watch.

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders with an average of 51-44. The last poll has her leading 51-43. All the polls that have been performed had Hillary's lead under ten, except for one that had her up by 15. The last poll performed had her with her second highest lead as the others had Sanders within 5.

The primaries are open so it will be interesting to see if Independents show up to vote for Bernie and give him a surprise upset, or if they do go to the polls, put their support behind either Cruz or Kasich in order to keep Trump from getting the win.

According to 538, Hillary has a 91% chance to win Indiana.

There has been no polling in Guam but it is assumed that Hillary will win.

I will be in Fayetteville tomorrow during the results so I will not be able to update until Wednesday when I return.

UPDATE 6:30:

I am in Fayetteville but I am able to update. Trump is projected to win Indiana and it looks to be in a landslide and will pick up all 57 delegates. The Democratic race us too close to call but Sanders is currently leading.

UPDATE:

Ted Cruz has surprisingly dropped out of the race effectively giving the nomination to Trump. More later.

UPDATE 9:00:

Bernie Sanders is projected to win Indiana.

FINAL INDIANA UPDATE:

The Republican race is all but wrapped up now that Trump is the only candidate still running. Cruz had stated he would take the fight to the convention but aborted his run after Indiana.

DEMOCRATS:

Bernie Sanders - 53%

Hillary Clinton - 47%

DELEGATE UPDATE:

Bernie Sanders - 44 delegates

Hillary Clinton - 39 delegates

OVERALL:

DELEGATES LEFT:

933 delegates left

Hillary Clinton - 1700 delegates

Clinton needs to win 35% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination before the convention. Even if she somehow manages to lose the rest of the states as long as she keeps the margin around 55-45% she will win.

Bernie Sanders - 1418

Sanders needs to win 65% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination before the convention. In other words not only does he need to keep winning against Hillary he needs to match his earlier wins in Washington, Hawaii, and Alaska. He has the chance but it is not likely. At this point he is only keeping Hillary from winning the nomination before the convention.

There is good reason why both Cruz and Kasich dropped out of the race after Indiana and has nothing to do with not having a chance to win the nomination. In poll after poll and exit poll after exit poll, Republicans were becoming more and more angry about the race. Nearly 3 in 4 Republicans felt that the race was dividing their party.