The M Primaries

I call this weeks slate of primaries the M primaries because the two major primaries are Michigan and Mississippi on the 8th.

The Republicans have more at stake this week as including the two above primaries they have a primary in Idaho as well as caucuses in Hawaii and DC. Guam has a convention but it's delegates are unbound so nothing will be awarded until the convention. There will also be results from the US Virgin Islands.

Including the M primaries the Democrats have the Northern Marianas caucus and the Democrats Abroad will have their first results.

For the Democrats there are 130 delegates available in Michigan, 36 in Mississippi, 6 in the Northern Marianas, and 13 from Democrats abroad. This will be a total of 185 delegates awarded over the next week.

For the Republicans there are 19 delegates available in Hawaii, 32 in Idaho, 59 in Michigan, 40 in Mississippi, 6 in the US Virgin Islands, and 19 in DC. This will result in 175 delegates awarded over the next week.

There has been plenty of poll results in Michigan, a few in Mississippi, and none elsewhere so it will be a bit of guess work for the predictions.

In Michigan the polling has seen wild swings on both sides. For the Democrats the average of the polls show Hillary up on Bernie 57-42%. With the underwhelming reporting on this past weeks wins by Bernie Sanders it is likely that these number will not change much so Hillary should take the win.

On the Republican side almost every poll has had Trump in the lead and comfortably, except for one which had John Kasich in the lead. The average though is showing Trump with a lead over Cruz and Kasich 37-20-17%. Even though Cruz won the majority of the delegates last week the media was more focused on Trump winning two of his own despite barely winning those two. This state will be the true test to see if Cruz has gained momentum. It will greatly depend on early voting as Trump won Louisiana due to early voting. I hate to do this but I think it is going to be extremely close but the race will come down to Trump and Cruz.

In Mississippi far less polling has been done on both sides. For the Democrats this looks like a cakewalk for Hillary as she has a 63-19% advantage. Even with the undecideds at 19% even if Bernie wins all of them it is still an easy victory for Hillary as the south has been so far.

For the Republicans there has only been one poll in the new year showing Trump with a 41-17-16% lead over Cruz and Rubio. There are still 26% with other candidates no longer in the race or undecided. As with Kentucky (where Trump was showing a commanding lead going in) this race looks to be much closer with Cruz seeming to be the benefactor.

For the rest of the races there is no polling so it is difficult to make a prediction. DC is the huge outlier here as the majority of the voters will be African American. Kasich could be the benefactor of this. I think Cruz could take Idaho and Rubio should take Hawaii but Trump may actually take it. Rubio may also benefit in the US Virgin Islands. We shall see.

It should be a fun week leading up to the secondary Super Tuesday.

MINOR UPDATE:

I just learned that even though all the voting for Democrats Abroad finished up today they will not actually release the results until March 21. Not sure why there is a two week delay just reporting what their twitter page is reporting.

UPDATE 7:00 PM:

To no great surprise Hillary has been declared the winner in Mississippi. Still too early too call on the GOP side between Trump and Cruz.

UPDATE 7:30 PM:

Donald Trump has been declared the winner in Mississippi. Followed by Cruz. Rubio and Kasich are looking potentially at single digits. The margin of victory is still very much in doubt.

Early returns from Michigan (some polls closed at 7:00 PM and others at 8 due to time zones) are showing Bernie and Trump in the lead (with Kasich in at 2nd and Cruz at third).

UPDATE 8:00 PM:

As the final polls close in Michigan Trump has been declared the winner over John Kasich and Ted Cruz. Marco Rubio for the second time looks to finish under double digits.

The Democratic side is too early too call cut at this point Sanders is in the lead by about 6,000 votes. Next to close is Idaho which will close at 8 PM Mountain Time in the South and 8 PM Pacific Time in the North (9 and 10 PM for those of us in Central Time).

Hawaii closes it's caucus at 8 PM Hawaii time (12 PM Central Time).

ANOTHER MINOR UPDATE:

As it does not look like Michigan will be called for the Democrats by 9 PM (Bernie is up 24,000+ votes at this writing and Idaho does not fully close until 10 PM there will be no 9 PM update.

UPDATE 10:15 PM:

The media at this point is still not calling the race on the Democratic side. Even though we are at 92% and Bernie Sanders has maintained his lead the media, it appears, is going to wait until the counts are 100% in the three main counties that Hillary is winning before calling the race. It seems to be a bit disingenuous as it makes them appear to be in the book for Hillary (shocking I know).

However this turns out going into tonight Hillary was ahead in ALL OF THE POLLS anywhere from 10-20% and for Bernie to either loose by less than 1% which he would if she came back or to win outright would absolutely be stunning no matter which way the media wants to spin it.

Idaho has closed across the state but because it is a caucus it may take some time before we have a good read on the race. As it stands it is too close too call between Trump and Cruz.

UPDATE 10:40 PM:

It looks as though I was right since the three main counties for Hillary are between 95-100% Bernie Sanders has been declared the winner of Michigan. Again the delegates will be split between the two candidates but winning a major state, especially trailing as he was, is a huge boost to the Sanders campaign.

The Sanders camp has long stated that that the southeast was Hillary's strongest area and they were going to focus on winning the rest of the country. That theory could come to fruition. Once Florida votes next week it does get easier for Bernie to catch up.

There are still two more races to decide tonight for the Republicans and then there is also Saturday.

UPDATE 11:00 PM:

Ted Cruz has won Idaho as predicted earlier.

Hawaii has still yet to finish voting but I will say it again. Marco Rubio is done in this race. Finishing 4th in Mississippi and Michigan (and in single digits)and another 3rd place finish in Idaho, even if he wins Hawaii he is done in this race. So is John Kasich, but he was never really in this race.

Kasich has stated that he would drop our if he lost in Ohio and that looks all but certain.

UPDATE 1:15 AM:

This will be my last update of the night. I will return tomorrow with final results and a delegate update as well.

As it stands right now no winners have been declared in Hawaii, but with a little over a quarter of votes counted Trump has a comfortable lead over Cruz. Things could change as his lead is less than 300. One thing is certain, Rubio will finish the night on yet another disappointment as he will be fighting Kasich for third place. It was felt Rubio may be able to pick up the state.

My how things change.

UPDATE 9:49 AM:

Trump was declared the winner of Hawaii. So with all of the Tuesday M Primaries settled, let us look at the results and delegate count.

Republicans:

Mississippi - Trump beats Cruz 47-36% and delegates 24-13 with 3 delegates unassigned. No other candidate received enough votes to win delegates.

Michigan - Trump beats Cruz and Kasich 37-25-24% and takes the delegates 25-17-17. Rubio does not get enough votes to get a delegate.

Idaho - Cruz beat Trump 45-28% to take the delegates 20-12. No other candidate got enough votes to earn a delegate.

Hawaii - Trump beats Cruz 42-33% and the delegates 10-6 with 3 delegates unassigned.

Weekly total, so far:

Trump - 83

Cruz - 56

Kasich - 17

Rubio 0

Overall:

Trump - 465

Cruz - 356

Rubio - 151

Kasich - 54

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton won in Mississippi by a huge margin over Bernie Sanders 83-17% and took the delegates 28-4 with 3 delegates unassigned.

Bernie Sanders shocked the world and pulled out a narrow victory in Michigan 50-48% to take the delegates 65-58 with 7 delegates unassigned. In the fuzzy math department with super delegates Hillary wins the state 68-65 even though she lost overall. Those super delegates though.

Week total, so far:

Hillary - 86

Bernie - 69

Overall:

Hillary - 755

Bernie - 545

We still have races this week. For the Republicans the US Virgin Islands vote today. With DC voting on Saturday. Guam votes on Saturday as well but their delegates are not committed. The US Virgin Islands may also be uncommitted. I will find out today. For the Democrats the Northern Marianas vote on Saturday.

Here is the thing among the rest of these races this week. Absolutely no polling. In fact, the major media has already moved on to next weeks races. I will not do that. As long as there are delegates to win I will report them to you.

UPDATE 3/11:

As expected the media has completely turned it's attention to Tuesday but the Democrats have a primary in Northern Marianas and the Republicans have DC. As for the Virgin Islands the two main sites I follow have their primary on two different days. As there was no reported results from yesterday we have to make the assumption that they have yet to vote. When I see results I will report them.

As for the two primaries tomorrow, absolutely no polling so I will make my educated guess that Hillary wins comfortably in the Northern Marianas and Trump wins DC with Cruz in second. I would not be shocked if Cruz wins since he has been in DC for quite some time. I do not expect high voter turnout in DC for the Republicans. Obama won DC with 91%. Since 1964, the first year DC had electoral votes, a Republican candidate has never won DC and it has not been close. The best a Republican has ever done in DC was in 1972 when Nixon won 22%. Even Reagan did not approach 20%. In 1984 when he scored 98% of the delegates, outside of Minnesota, Mondale's only other win was DC. Reagan only picked up 14% of the DC vote.

UPDATE MARCH 12 3:20 PM:

As expected Hillary Clinton did win the Northern Marianas taking 4 delegates to Bernie Sanders 2. The results for the Republicans in DC should become available tonight.

DELEGATE UPDATE:

The rest of the Hawaii delegates were assigned for the Republicans with Trump defeating Cruz and Rubio 11-7-1. Rubio salvaged the week but getting 1 delegate.

Updated week and delegate count:

Trump - 84

Cruz - 57

Kasich - 17

Rubio - 1

Trump - 459

Cruz 360

Rubio - 152

Kasich - 54

I had addition errors which I have adjusted to show the correct delegates for Trump and Cruz. Still waiting on the DC Caucus results to come in.

UPDATE 9:15 PM:

Well I was way off on my projection for DC. Marco Rubio has finished in first followed by Cruz Kasich. In distant 3rd at this time is Trump but he is in danger to fall to fourth behind Kasich Cruz.

It was not even a close vote from 1st and 2nd to 3rd and 4th. With 97% reporting, Rubio is up on Kasich 1,059 - 1,009 followed by Trump and Cruz at 391 - 351.

No delegates have been assigned but the two front leaders of the race are in danger of coming out of DC with no delegates.

DELEGATE UPDATE:

Rubio was awarded 10 delegates in DC and Kasich 9. Trump and Cruz come out of DC empty handed.

For the week and overall:

Trump - 84

Cruz - 57

Kasich - 36

Rubio - 11

Trump - 459

Cruz - 360

Rubio - 162

Kasich - 63

Hillary - 90

Bernie - 71

Hillary - 759

Bernie - 547

That concludes the week of the M Primaries. There may still be some updates as Wyoming is going through their statewide delegate vote, and there is some rumbling of a change of delegates in Iowa. I will update as I learn.