Super Tuesday Results

As predicted neither front runner was able to deliver a knock out punch. Of the two Clinton came the closest but Bernie still has life as I will explain. I was way off on Rubio who I believed on the polling was rising and would be able to secure enough second place finishes to challenge Trump. Instead it was Cruz who had the better night of the two and even surprised with some wins no one was expecting. He won his home state of Texas but the surprise is that he won by double digits. He also came away with Oklahoma and Alaska. Rubio was able to pick up a win in Minnesota. One of the more surprising finishes was in Vermont where Kasich almost beat Trump less than a month after Trump had walked away with New Hampshire.

Clinton won where she was expected and even picked up Massachusetts, but again this was not a knock out punch because Bernie was able to pick up three additional states (Oklahoma, Colorado, Minnesota) and his home state of Vermont. Now that the majority of the southern states have voted the path for Bernie to catch up and overtake Hillary becomes easier not harder.

Now to the results:

Republicans:

Alabama

Trump - 43%

Cruz - 21%

Rubio - 19%

Trump - 36

Cruz - 13

Rubio - 1

Alaska

Cruz - 36%

Trump - 34%

Rubio - 15$

Cruz - 12

Trump - 11

Rubio - 5

Arkansas

Trump - 33%

Cruz - 30%

Rubio - 25%

Trump - 16

Cruz - 14

Rubio -9

Georgia

Trump - 39%

Cruz - 24%

Rubio - 24%

Trump - 40

Cruz - 18

Rubio - 14

Massachusetts

Trump - 49%

Kasich - 18%

Rubio - 18%

Cruz - 10%

Trump - 22

Kasich - 8

Rubio - 8

Cruz - 4

Minnesota

Rubio - 37%

Cruz - 30%

Trump - 21%

Rubio - 17

Cruz - 13

Trump - 8

Oklahoma

Cruz - 34%

Trump - 28%

Rubio - 26%

Cruz - 14

Trump - 12

Rubio - 11

Tennessee

Trump - 39%

Cruz - 25%

Rubio - 21%

Trump - 31

Cruz - 14

Rubio - 9

Texas

Cruz - 44%

Trump - 27%

Rubio - 18%

Cruz - 99

Trump - 39

Rubio - 4

Vermont

Trump - 33%

Kasich - 30%

Trump - 6

Kasich - 6

Virginia

Trump - 35%

Rubio - 32%

Cruz - 17%

Kasich - 9%

Carson - 6%

Trump - 17

Rubio - 16

Cruz - 8

Kasich - 5

Carson - 3

The new delegate count has Trump with 319, Cruz with 226, Rubio with 110, Kasich with 25, Carson with 8, all others with 7.

Because Colorado and Wyoming delegates were not counted and will not be counted until the convention they are not included.

The takeaway: It looks more and more like a potential brokered convention for the Republicans which would cause all hell to break loose. In order to get the nomination before the convention the winner needs to get 1,237. There are about 1,777 which means that Trump would have to win almost 60% of the remaining delegates to clinch. He has yet to do that in any contest. It does become easier for him as after March most races are winner take all.

Ben Carson announced today that he saw no forward path for himself in the nomination race so he would not be at the next debate. However, he is not dropping out of the race.

Democratic:

Alabama

Hillary - 78%

Bernie - 19%

Hillary - 44

Bernie - 9

American Samoa

Hillary - 4

Bernie - 1

American Samoa was won by Hillary but there is no available percentages and there are 6 delegates still not assigned.

Arkansas

Hillary - 66%

Bernie - 30%

Hillary - 20

Bernie - 9

Four delegates not assigned.

Colorado

Bernie - 59%

Hillary - 40%

Bernie - 35

Hillary - 24

Seven delegates not assigned. Fuzzy super delegate math would put Hillary only 1 delegate behind Bernie, despite losing the state by 20%.

Georgia

Hillary - 71%

Bernie - 28%

Hillary - 70

Bernie - 28

Four delegates not assigned.

Massachusetts

Hillary - 51%

Bernie - 49%

Hillary - 45

Bernie - 43

Three delegates not assigned. More fuzzy super delegate math, despite only winning by two percent with super delegates Hillary would have 20 more.

Minnesota

Bernie - 62%

Hillary - 38%

Bernie - 46

Hillary - 28

Three delegates not assigned.

Oklahoma

Bernie - 52%

Hillary - 42%

Bernie - 20

Hillary - 16

Two delegates not assigned.

Tennessee

Hillary - 66%

Bernie - 32%

Hillary - 41

Bernie - 22

Four delegates not assigned.

Texas

Hillary - 65%

Bernie - 32%

Hillary - 138

Bernie - 61

Twenty three delegates not assigned.

Vermont

Bernie - 86%

Hillary - 14%

Bernie - 16

Hillary did not get enough votes to get committed delegates but was able to get four super delegates to Bernie's three.

Virginia

Hillary - 64%

Bernie - 35%

Hillary - 60

Bernie - 32

Two delegates not assigned.

The new delegate count has Hillary with 577 and Bernie with 386. The number needed to secure the nomination is 2,383. Because that number more than likely would include super delegates that count is Hillary with 1,034 and Bernie with 408.

The takeaway: Hillary is less than half way to the threshold but with more than enough delegates left for either candidate to win this race is going to stay for awhile.

Both of these races look to be competitive to the end.

PREVIEW OF MARCH 5TH CONTESTS:

The Republicans have races in Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Puerto Rico on the 6th.

The Democrats have Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Maine on the 6th.

There has been little polling done in any of these states so at this point it is next to impossible to even get a sense of where they are. I will of course put in a new blog on the 5th and hopefully there will be some new polling with updates.